Fortuna Köln
vs
FC Saarbrücken
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Saarbrücken
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Fortuna Köln vs FC Saarbrücken overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Fortuna Köln vs FC Saarbrücken
| Probability | Fortuna Köln | Draw | FC Saarbrücken |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36.7% | 25.7% | 37.7% |
| Market | 28.5% | 25.2% | 46.3% |
| Final | 30.5% | 25.3% | 44.2% |
| Edge | +8.2% | +0.5% | -8.7% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.07, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Fortuna Köln vs FC Saarbrücken match preview
In the upcoming 3. Liga match, Fortuna Köln faces FC Saarbrücken with kickoff scheduled for October 10, 2026. The model indicates that FC Saarbrücken has a 48% chance of winning, while Fortuna Köln stands at 27%, and a draw is at 24%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-2 in favor of FC Saarbrücken, with an 8% probability.
Both teams show a tendency for high-scoring matches, with a 61% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance for both teams to score. Expected goals are closely matched, with Fortuna Köln at 1.57 and FC Saarbrücken at 1.59. Recent form shows Fortuna Köln with two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last five matches, while FC Saarbrücken has two wins, two draws, and a loss.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Fortuna Köln and FC Saarbrücken expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.16
Fortuna Köln and FC Saarbrücken attack and defence ratings
Fortuna Köln
FC Saarbrücken
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Fortuna Köln vs FC Saarbrücken markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Saarbrücken | 44.2% | 2.26 | -8.7% | 2.07 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.2% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.7% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.3% | 1.60 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fortuna Köln | 30.5% |
| Draw | 25.3% | |
| FC Saarbrücken | 44.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.2% |
| No | 35.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 55.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 69.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Saarbrücken win | 19.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.5% | |
| Loss | 62.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.6% |
| 1-2 | 8.4% | |
| 2-1 | 8.3% |
Fortuna Köln vs FC Saarbrücken stats
Fortuna Köln and FC Saarbrücken recent form
| Fortuna Köln |
WLDDWD |
| FC Saarbrücken |
WDLWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Fortuna Köln and FC Saarbrücken season so far
Fortuna Köln record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
FC Saarbrücken record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They average 3.3 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fortuna Köln vs FC Saarbrücken head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-07 | FC Saarbrücken | Fortuna Köln | Friendlies Clubs | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Fortuna Köln vs FC Saarbrücken odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 28.5%, draw 25.2%, away 46.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.25 | 3.60 | 1.92 |
| Bet365 | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.90 | 3.25 | 1.83 |
| Betano | 3.20 | 3.60 | 2.07 |
| Betfair | 3.10 | 3.60 | 1.95 |
| Dafabet | 3.25 | 3.60 | 2.07 |
| Marathonbet | 3.18 | 3.60 | 1.90 |
| Pinnacle | 3.41 | 3.73 | 1.97 |
| SBO | 2.96 | 3.20 | 2.01 |
| William Hill | 3.25 | 3.40 | 1.95 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
30 snapshots recorded, from .