MSV Duisburg
vs
Hoffenheim II
Garuda Lions Prediction: MSV Duisburg
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II overview
Garuda Lions analysis: MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II
| Probability | MSV Duisburg | Draw | Hoffenheim II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.5% | 23.0% | 21.5% |
| Market | 53.4% | 23.0% | 23.6% |
| Final | 53.9% | 23.0% | 23.1% |
| Edge | +2.1% | -0.0% | -2.1% |
Why MSV Duisburg
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 1.23.
- The market prices MSV Duisburg below the model: +2.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.80, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II match preview
MSV Duisburg enters the match against Hoffenheim II with a 55% probability of winning, while both teams share a 23% chance of securing a victory. The expected goals for Duisburg stand at 2.06, indicating a strong offensive capability, whereas Hoffenheim II is projected to score 1.23 goals. Recent form shows Duisburg with three wins and three losses in their last six matches, while Hoffenheim II has been more consistent with four wins, one draw, and one loss.
The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of MSV Duisburg, with a 10% likelihood. Additionally, there is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match, and both teams have a 63% probability of finding the back of the net. The head-to-head record from the last two encounters shows each team with one win.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
MSV Duisburg and Hoffenheim II expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.29
MSV Duisburg and Hoffenheim II attack and defence ratings
MSV Duisburg
Hoffenheim II
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Preußen Münster vs Rot-Weiß Essen
- SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Havelse — team news & stats
- Würzburger Kickers vs Hansa Rostock — team news & stats
- SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach v Waldhof Mannheim — match page
- SV Meppen vs Stuttgart II — team news & stats
- Fortuna Köln vs FC Saarbrücken
- FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen
- Alemannia Aachen v FC Viktoria Köln — match page
Before and after this match
MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | MSV Duisburg | 53.9% | 1.85 | +2.1% | 1.80 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.9% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.7% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.0% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.6% | 2.24 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | MSV Duisburg | 53.9% |
| Draw | 23.0% | |
| Hoffenheim II | 23.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.7% |
| No | 37.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | MSV Duisburg win | 33.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.5% | |
| Loss | 44.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 2-0 | 7.9% |
MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II stats
MSV Duisburg and Hoffenheim II recent form
| MSV Duisburg |
WWLWWL |
| Hoffenheim II |
WWDLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
MSV Duisburg and Hoffenheim II season so far
MSV Duisburg record
- They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Hoffenheim II record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | MSV Duisburg | Hoffenheim II | 3. Liga | 3-1 |
| 2025-11-21 | Hoffenheim II | MSV Duisburg | 3. Liga | 4-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 53.4%, draw 23.0%, away 23.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.66 | 3.94 | 4.03 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 3.70 | 3.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.62 | 3.40 | 3.50 |
| Betano | 1.80 | 3.95 | 3.85 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.78 | 4.00 | 3.90 |
| Marathonbet | 1.64 | 3.94 | 3.95 |
| Pinnacle | 1.74 | 4.27 | 3.85 |
| SBO | 1.73 | 3.50 | 3.52 |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 3.80 | 3.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
30 snapshots recorded, from .