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3. Liga · Full time ·Matchday 7

SV Wehen vs MSV Duisburg

1 – 4 Full time

18′Dominik Kother
25′Dominik Kother
32′Frederik Christensen
45′Lukas Schleimer
45′niklas jessenCan Coskun
45′Raul PaulaMichael Schultz
45′Moritz flothoMarcus Muller
54′Conor Noss
57′Lukas Schleimer
59′Tarik Gözüsirin
67′Conor NossFlorian Krüger
67′Dominik KotherRamien Safi
72′Ben NinkRobin Kalem
72′Roberto MassimoSimon Stehle
76′Peter RemmertMax Besuschkow
81′Simon Stehle
82′Jordy GillekensFlorian Hübner
88′Frederik ChristensenDennis Borkwoski

Brita Arena, WiesbadenReferee: Cengiz Kabalakli

SV Wehen 28%
Draw 27%
MSV Duisburg 46%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

11 Shots 10
5 Shots on target 7
52 Possession % 48
1 Corners 8

SV Wehen vs MSV Duisburg overview

Garuda Lions analysis: SV Wehen vs MSV Duisburg

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySV WehenDrawMSV Duisburg
Model19.2%25.0%55.8%
Market30.8%27.1%42.1%
Final27.9%26.5%45.5%
Edge-11.6%-2.1%+13.7%

Confidence: Low

Why MSV Duisburg

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 0.99.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices MSV Duisburg below the model: +13.7 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

SV Wehen ↓ / MSV Duisburg → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 10% 10% 6% 1 12% 10% 6% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 78%
3+ goals 53%
No goals 7%

SV Wehen and MSV Duisburg expected goals

SV Wehen 0.99
MSV Duisburg 1.82

Total expected goals: 2.81

SV Wehen and MSV Duisburg attack and defence ratings

SV Wehen

Attack 0.70 -30%
Defence 1.09 +9%

MSV Duisburg

Attack 1.15 +15%
Defence 0.81 -19%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

SV Wehen vs MSV Duisburg: result vs prediction

SV Wehen 1 – 4 MSV Duisburg

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

3. Liga

Before and after this match

SV Wehen vs MSV Duisburg markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 MSV Duisburg 45.5% 2.20 +13.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 53.4% 1.87 — —
Both teams to score Yes 53.8% 1.86 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.5% 1.36 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 44.3% 2.26 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2SV Wehen27.9%
Draw26.5%
MSV Duisburg45.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553.4%
Under 2.546.6%
Both teams to scoreYes53.8%
No46.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)54.5%
12 (either side)73.5%
X2 (draw or away)72.1%
Handicap -1MSV Duisburg win32.5%
Push (exactly one goal)23.2%
Loss44.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.9%
0-210.0%
1-29.9%

SV Wehen vs MSV Duisburg stats

SV Wehen and MSV Duisburg recent form

newest first
SV Wehen WLDDLL
MSV Duisburg WLWWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

SV Wehen and MSV Duisburg going into this match

league record before kick-off

SV Wehen record

  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

MSV Duisburg record

  • They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

SV Wehen vs MSV Duisburg head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4SV Wehen wins 1Draws 5MSV Duisburg wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-14SV WehenMSV Duisburg3. Liga6-1
2025-09-13MSV DuisburgSV Wehen3. Liga3-1
2023-04-22MSV DuisburgSV Wehen3. Liga1-1
2022-10-28SV WehenMSV Duisburg3. Liga1-3
2022-01-29SV WehenMSV Duisburg3. Liga0-1
2021-08-25MSV DuisburgSV Wehen3. Liga0-2
2021-04-25SV WehenMSV Duisburg3. Liga0-3
2020-12-12MSV DuisburgSV Wehen3. Liga4-1
2017-03-11MSV DuisburgSV Wehen3. Liga0-1
2016-09-16SV WehenMSV Duisburg3. Liga3-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

SV Wehen vs MSV Duisburg odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 30.8%, draw 27.1%, away 42.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.02 3.30 2.12
Bet365 2.90 3.40 2.10
BetVictor 2.70 3.00 2.00
Betano 3.05 3.45 2.22
Betfair 2.88 3.40 2.15
Marathonbet 2.95 3.30 2.10
Pinnacle 3.15 3.54 2.22
SBO 2.90 3.18 2.12
William Hill 2.90 3.20 2.15

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.90 ▼ -0.31
X 3.30 ▼ -0.27
2 2.12 ▲ +0.18

10 snapshots recorded, from .