3. Liga · 2026-09-19T14:30:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 7

FC Saarbrücken vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

2 – 1 Full time

3′			Antonis Aidonis
23′			Tim RossmannNiklas Pollex
45′			Christian KühlwetterKai Brünker
45′			Daniel GleiberAbdoulaye Kamara
45′			Kelsey OwusuMaurice Multhaup
45′			Nikos ZografakisLukas Stoppel
51′			Niklas Pollex
58′			V. Celiktas
58′			Patrick Sontheimer
64′			Patrick Sontheimer
65′			Alexander StaffKaan Caliskaner
79′			V. CeliktasFranz Bleicher
79′			Fabian EiseleChristian Mistl
80′			Mladen cvjetinovic
83′			Niko BretschneiderCalogero Rizzuto
85′			Marius Kunde
89′			Niklas PollexMarlon Freddy Faß
90′			Siemen Voet
90′			Siemen Voet

Ludwigspark-Stadion, SaarbrückenReferee: Assad Nouhoum

FC Saarbrücken

52%

Draw

24%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

25%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

16	Shots	11
3	Shots on target	4
55	Possession %	45
9	Corners	2

FC Saarbrücken vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FC Saarbrücken vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	FC Saarbrücken	Draw	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
Model	58.9%	22.1%	19.0%
Market	49.4%	24.1%	26.5%
Final	51.8%	23.6%	24.6%
Edge	+9.5%	-2.0%	-7.6%

Confidence: Low

Why FC Saarbrücken

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.16 vs 1.16.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
The market prices FC Saarbrücken below the model: +9.5 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

95%

2+ goals

85%

3+ goals

64%

No goals

FC Saarbrücken and SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach expected goals

FC Saarbrücken

2.16

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

1.16

Total expected goals: 3.32

FC Saarbrücken and SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach attack and defence ratings

FC Saarbrücken

Attack

1.28 +28%

Defence

1.06 +6%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

Attack

0.75 -25%

Defence

0.97 -3%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FC Saarbrücken vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach: result vs prediction

FC Saarbrücken 2 – 1 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

3. Liga

Verl vs Würzburger Kickers · 2026-09-18
FC Viktoria Köln v FC Ingolstadt 04 — match page · 2026-09-19
Alemannia Aachen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf — team news & stats · 2026-09-19
Hoffenheim II v SV Meppen — match page · 2026-09-19
Stuttgart II vs SSV Jahn Regensburg — team news & stats · 2026-09-19
Rot-Weiß Essen v Hansa Rostock — match page · 2026-09-20
Waldhof Mannheim vs Preußen Münster — team news & stats · 2026-09-20
SV Wehen vs MSV Duisburg · 2026-09-20

Before and after this match

FC Saarbrücken, previous: Preußen Münster – FC Saarbrücken, 2026-09-16
FC Saarbrücken, next: Fortuna Köln vs FC Saarbrücken: odds and pick
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach, previous: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach v Verl analysis
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach, next: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach – Waldhof Mannheim, 2026-10-10

FC Saarbrücken vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	FC Saarbrücken	51.8%	1.93	+9.5%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	64.4%	1.55	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	61.7%	1.62	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	76.4%	1.31	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	40.8%	2.45	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	FC Saarbrücken	51.8%
	Draw	23.6%
	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	24.6%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	64.4%
	Under 2.5	35.6%
Both teams to score	Yes	61.7%
	No	38.3%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	75.4%
	12 (either side)	76.4%
	X2 (draw or away)	48.2%
Handicap -1	FC Saarbrücken win	37.4%
	Push (exactly one goal)	21.7%
	Loss	40.8%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	10.0%
	2-1	9.8%
	2-0	8.4%

FC Saarbrücken vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach stats

FC Saarbrücken and SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach recent form

newest first

FC Saarbrücken	DLWLDW
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	DDWLDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FC Saarbrücken and SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach going into this match

league record before kick-off

FC Saarbrücken record

They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
They average 3.3 goals per game on the road against 2.3 at home.
36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach record

They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
54% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FC Saarbrücken vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

FC Saarbrücken vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 49.4%, draw 24.1%, away 26.5%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	1.79	3.80	3.52
Bet365	1.83	3.60	3.70
BetVictor	1.70	3.40	3.13
Betano	1.90	3.85	3.55
Betfair	1.85	3.80	3.30
Marathonbet	1.77	3.80	3.45
Pinnacle	1.87	4.21	3.51
SBO	1.92	3.34	3.04
William Hill	1.85	3.80	3.30

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.85 ▲ +0.15

X 3.80 ▲ +0.03

2 3.45 ▼ -0.52

9 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-15T08:10:02Z.