FC Ingolstadt 04
vs
SV Wehen
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Ingolstadt 04
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen
| Probability | FC Ingolstadt 04 | Draw | SV Wehen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.4% | 25.0% | 21.6% |
| Market | 38.4% | 27.3% | 34.3% |
| Final | 42.1% | 26.7% | 31.2% |
| Edge | +15.0% | -2.4% | -12.7% |
Why FC Ingolstadt 04
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 1.11.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices FC Ingolstadt 04 below the model: +15.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.57, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen match preview
FC Ingolstadt 04 faces SV Wehen in a 3. Liga matchup with kickoff scheduled for October 11, 2026. Current model probabilities suggest a 49% chance of an Ingolstadt victory, while SV Wehen holds a 26% chance and a draw is rated at 25%. The expected goals for Ingolstadt stand at 1.84 compared to Wehen's 1.11, indicating a potential offensive edge for the home side.
Recent form shows FC Ingolstadt 04 with mixed results, recording two losses, one win, one draw, and another loss in their last five matches. Conversely, SV Wehen has struggled, with one win, two draws, and three losses in their recent outings. The last two encounters between these teams have seen Ingolstadt with no wins, one draw, and one loss to Wehen.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Ingolstadt 04 and SV Wehen expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.94
FC Ingolstadt 04 and SV Wehen attack and defence ratings
FC Ingolstadt 04
SV Wehen
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Havelse — team news & stats
- Würzburger Kickers vs Hansa Rostock — team news & stats
- SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach v Waldhof Mannheim — match page
- SV Meppen vs Stuttgart II — team news & stats
- Fortuna Köln vs FC Saarbrücken
- MSV Duisburg v Hoffenheim II — match page
- Alemannia Aachen v FC Viktoria Köln — match page
- Fortuna Düsseldorf v Verl — match page
Before and after this match
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 42.1% | 2.37 | +15.0% | 2.57 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.3% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.3% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.6% | 2.14 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 42.1% |
| Draw | 26.7% | |
| SV Wehen | 31.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.3% |
| No | 42.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Ingolstadt 04 win | 30.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.4% | |
| Loss | 46.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.9% |
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen stats
FC Ingolstadt 04 and SV Wehen recent form
| FC Ingolstadt 04 |
LLWLWD |
| SV Wehen |
LWLDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Ingolstadt 04 and SV Wehen season so far
FC Ingolstadt 04 record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
SV Wehen record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | SV Wehen | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 3. Liga | 2-1 |
| 2025-09-20 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | SV Wehen | 3. Liga | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.4%, draw 27.3%, away 34.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.29 | 3.36 | 2.60 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 3.30 | 2.62 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| Betano | 2.42 | 3.40 | 2.75 |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 3.30 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.41 | 3.40 | 2.75 |
| Marathonbet | 2.29 | 3.36 | 2.60 |
| Pinnacle | 2.57 | 3.04 | 2.88 |
| SBO | 2.29 | 3.10 | 2.56 |
| William Hill | 2.40 | 3.00 | 2.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
30 snapshots recorded, from .