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3. Liga · Full time ·Matchday 9

FC Saarbrücken vs MSV Duisburg

2 – 4 Full time

29′Lex-Tyger Lobinger
34′Tobias Fleckstein
42′Rasim Bulic
45′Kaan CaliskanerKai Brünker
45′Daniel GleiberSebastian Vasiliadis
47′Philip Fahrner
50′Kai Brünker
54′Philip FahrnerCalogero Rizzuto
60′Alexander StaffGokdeniz Gurpuz
67′Lex-Tyger LobingerPeter Remmert
67′Conor NossRamien Safi
69′Florian Pick
75′niklas jessenMax Besuschkow
75′Frederik ChristensenCan Coskun
78′Zac ShuaibChristian Kühlwetter
79′Dominik KotherFlorian Krüger
81′Florian Krüger
90′Gokdeniz Gurpuz

Ludwigspark-Stadion, SaarbrückenReferee: Felix Weller

FC Saarbrücken 37%
Draw 25%
MSV Duisburg 38%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

14 Shots 20
7 Shots on target 8
49 Possession % 51
4 Corners 5

FC Saarbrücken vs MSV Duisburg overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FC Saarbrücken vs MSV Duisburg

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFC SaarbrückenDrawMSV Duisburg
Model35.3%23.6%41.1%
Market37.0%25.9%37.0%
Final36.6%25.3%38.1%
Edge-0.4%-0.6%+1.0%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why MSV Duisburg

  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FC Saarbrücken ↓ / MSV Duisburg → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 10% 8% 5% 2 8% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 88%
3+ goals 70%
No goals 4%

FC Saarbrücken and MSV Duisburg expected goals

FC Saarbrücken 1.73
MSV Duisburg 1.88

Total expected goals: 3.61

FC Saarbrücken and MSV Duisburg attack and defence ratings

FC Saarbrücken

Attack 1.16 +16%
Defence 0.94 -6%

MSV Duisburg

Attack 1.34 +34%
Defence 0.86 -14%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FC Saarbrücken vs MSV Duisburg: result vs prediction

FC Saarbrücken 2 – 4 MSV Duisburg

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

3. Liga

Before and after this match

FC Saarbrücken vs MSV Duisburg markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 MSV Duisburg 38.1% 2.63 +1.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 69.9% 1.43 — —
Both teams to score Yes 70.6% 1.42 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.7% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 58.9% 1.70 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FC Saarbrücken36.6%
Draw25.3%
MSV Duisburg38.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.569.9%
Under 2.530.1%
Both teams to scoreYes70.6%
No29.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)61.9%
12 (either side)74.7%
X2 (draw or away)63.4%
Handicap -1MSV Duisburg win22.7%
Push (exactly one goal)18.4%
Loss58.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-19.7%
1-28.3%
2-17.6%

FC Saarbrücken vs MSV Duisburg stats

FC Saarbrücken and MSV Duisburg recent form

newest first
FC Saarbrücken DWDLWL
MSV Duisburg WWWLWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FC Saarbrücken and MSV Duisburg going into this match

league record before kick-off

FC Saarbrücken record

  • They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

MSV Duisburg record

  • They have won 7 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

FC Saarbrücken vs MSV Duisburg head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4FC Saarbrücken wins 3Draws 3MSV Duisburg wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-08MSV DuisburgFC Saarbrücken3. Liga4-2
2025-09-30FC SaarbrückenMSV Duisburg3. Liga0-0
2024-03-16MSV DuisburgFC Saarbrücken3. Liga2-0
2023-11-29FC SaarbrückenMSV Duisburg3. Liga0-0
2023-05-21MSV DuisburgFC Saarbrücken3. Liga2-2
2023-01-14FC SaarbrückenMSV Duisburg3. Liga2-3
2022-01-23MSV DuisburgFC Saarbrücken3. Liga3-4
2021-08-14FC SaarbrückenMSV Duisburg3. Liga2-0
2021-03-03FC SaarbrückenMSV Duisburg3. Liga4-1
2020-11-04MSV DuisburgFC Saarbrücken3. Liga2-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FC Saarbrücken vs MSV Duisburg odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 37.0%, draw 25.9%, away 37.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.45 3.45 2.38
Bet365 2.45 3.50 2.45
BetVictor 2.25 3.13 2.30
Betano 2.52 3.55 2.55
Betfair 2.40 3.60 2.45
Dafabet 2.50 3.55 2.55
Marathonbet 2.45 3.45 2.38
Pinnacle 2.50 3.82 2.58
SBO 2.37 3.28 2.47
William Hill 2.40 3.50 2.45

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.45 ▼ -0.20
X 3.50 ▼ -0.10
2 2.45 ▲ +0.24

10 snapshots recorded, from .