FC Saarbrücken
vs
MSV Duisburg
Garuda Lions Prediction: MSV Duisburg
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
FC Saarbrücken vs MSV Duisburg overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Saarbrücken vs MSV Duisburg
| Probability | FC Saarbrücken | Draw | MSV Duisburg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34.9% | 23.0% | 42.0% |
| Market | 34.1% | 25.1% | 40.9% |
| Final | 34.3% | 24.6% | 41.1% |
| Edge | +0.9% | -2.0% | +1.2% |
Why MSV Duisburg
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.35, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
FC Saarbrücken vs MSV Duisburg match preview
FC Saarbrücken will face MSV Duisburg in a 3. Liga matchup on October 13, 2026. The model indicates a probability of 35% for a home win for FC Saarbrücken, while MSV Duisburg has a 42% chance of winning, with a 23% likelihood of a draw. The expected goals for FC Saarbrücken stand at 1.78, compared to 1.96 for MSV Duisburg, suggesting a competitive encounter.
Recent form shows FC Saarbrücken with a record of W-D-L-W-L-D, while MSV Duisburg has won four of their last six matches, recording W-W-L-W-W-L. The most likely scoreline is 1-2 in favor of MSV Duisburg, with both teams expected to score and a high probability of over 2.5 goals at 72%. In their last two encounters, FC Saarbrücken has not secured a win, recording 0 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss against Duisburg.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Saarbrücken and MSV Duisburg expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.74
FC Saarbrücken and MSV Duisburg attack and defence ratings
FC Saarbrücken
MSV Duisburg
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Hansa Rostock v SV Meppen — match page
- Rot-Weiß Essen vs Fortuna Köln
- Havelse v Würzburger Kickers — match page
- Stuttgart II vs Hoffenheim II — team news & stats
- Preußen Münster vs Fortuna Düsseldorf — team news & stats
- SV Wehen vs Alemannia Aachen
- FC Viktoria Köln vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach — team news & stats
- Verl vs SSV Jahn Regensburg — team news & stats
Before and after this match
FC Saarbrücken vs MSV Duisburg markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | MSV Duisburg | 41.1% | 2.43 | +1.2% | 2.35 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.2% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.3% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.4% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.0% | 1.73 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Saarbrücken | 34.3% |
| Draw | 24.6% | |
| MSV Duisburg | 41.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 27.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.3% |
| No | 27.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 58.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | MSV Duisburg win | 23.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.3% | |
| Loss | 58.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.1% |
| 1-2 | 8.1% | |
| 2-1 | 7.4% |
FC Saarbrücken vs MSV Duisburg stats
FC Saarbrücken and MSV Duisburg recent form
| FC Saarbrücken |
WDLWLD |
| MSV Duisburg |
WWLWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Saarbrücken and MSV Duisburg season so far
FC Saarbrücken record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They average 3.3 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
MSV Duisburg record
- They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
FC Saarbrücken vs MSV Duisburg head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | MSV Duisburg | FC Saarbrücken | 3. Liga | 4-2 |
| 2025-09-30 | FC Saarbrücken | MSV Duisburg | 3. Liga | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FC Saarbrücken vs MSV Duisburg odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.1%, draw 25.1%, away 40.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.68 | 3.56 | 2.21 |
| Betano | 2.72 | 3.60 | 2.35 |
| Betfair | 2.60 | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| Dafabet | 2.65 | 3.65 | 2.32 |
| Marathonbet | 2.62 | 3.56 | 2.19 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .