Asane
vs
Sogndal
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sogndal
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Asane vs Sogndal overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Asane vs Sogndal
| Probability | Asane | Draw | Sogndal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.9% | 23.7% | 44.4% |
| Market | 37.7% | 24.7% | 37.6% |
| Final | 36.2% | 24.5% | 39.3% |
| Edge | -5.8% | -1.0% | +6.8% |
Why Sogndal
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.92 vs 1.61.
- The market prices Sogndal below the model: +6.8 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Asane vs Sogndal match preview
Asane faces Sogndal in the Norway 1. Division with kickoff set for October 11, 2026. The model indicates a 32% probability of an Asane victory, while Sogndal has a 44% chance of winning, and a draw is estimated at 24%. The expected goals for Asane are 1.61, compared to Sogndal's 1.91, suggesting a competitive match.
Recent form shows Asane struggling with six games without a win (L-L-D-D-D-D), while Sogndal has also faced challenges, recording one win in their last six matches (L-D-D-L-L-D). In their last three encounters, Sogndal has secured two wins and one draw against Asane. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, with a 68% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Asane and Sogndal expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.53
Asane and Sogndal attack and defence ratings
Asane
Sogndal
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 25 fixtures
Before and after this match
Asane vs Sogndal markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sogndal | 39.3% | 2.55 | +6.8% | 2.50 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.5% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.2% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.5% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Asane | 36.2% |
| Draw | 24.5% | |
| Sogndal | 39.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.2% |
| No | 30.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sogndal win | 25.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.2% | |
| Loss | 55.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.0% |
| 1-2 | 8.7% | |
| 2-1 | 7.3% |
Asane vs Sogndal stats
Asane and Sogndal recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Asane and Sogndal season so far
Asane record
- They have won 5 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 23 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sogndal record
- They have won 6 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 22 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Asane vs Sogndal head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Sogndal | Asane | Norway 1. Division | 2-0 |
| 2025-08-30 | Asane | Sogndal | Norway 1. Division | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-16 | Sogndal | Asane | Norway 1. Division | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Asane vs Sogndal odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.7%, draw 24.7%, away 37.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.44 | 3.72 | 2.45 |
| Bet365 | 2.38 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| BetVictor | 2.45 | 3.90 | 2.45 |
| Betano | 2.45 | 3.70 | 2.50 |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 3.90 | 2.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.47 | 3.75 | 2.44 |
| Marathonbet | 2.44 | 3.72 | 2.45 |
| Pinnacle | 2.49 | 3.91 | 2.48 |
| SBO | 2.31 | 3.52 | 2.32 |
| William Hill | 2.40 | 3.50 | 2.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .