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Poland Cup · Full time ·Round of 64

Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin

2 – 1 Full time

1′P. Samiec-Talar
3′P. Samiec-Talar
46′H. AliN. Lawa
57′M. MalecI. Christodoulou
57′P. BanaszakP. M. Dembele
57′K. LinettyE. Shabani
60′K. GrosickiM. Juwara
64′P. Mukairu
74′G. TomasiewiczA. Zulewski
82′L. MarjanacA. Ciucka
82′B. MendyL. Willen
82′D. ChurlinovJ. Nsame
84′Y. Matsenko
90′M. WojciechowskiF. Cuic

Tarczynski Arena

Slask Wroclaw 34%
Draw 29%
Pogon Szczecin 38%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySlask WroclawDrawPogon Szczecin
Model32.5%29.9%37.7%
Market34.3%28.1%37.6%
Final33.8%28.5%37.7%
Edge-1.8%+1.8%+0.0%

Confidence: Low

Why Pogon Szczecin

  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Slask Wroclaw ↓ / Pogon Szczecin → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 10% 1 9% 14% 8% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 72%
3+ goals 44%
No goals 10%

Slask Wroclaw and Pogon Szczecin expected goals

Slask Wroclaw 1.18
Pogon Szczecin 1.28

Total expected goals: 2.46

Slask Wroclaw and Pogon Szczecin attack and defence ratings

Slask Wroclaw

Attack 1.09 +9%
Defence 0.87 -13%

Pogon Szczecin

Attack 0.94 -6%
Defence 0.73 -27%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin: result vs prediction

Slask Wroclaw 2 – 1 Pogon Szczecin

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Round of 64 fixtures

Poland Cup

Before and after this match

Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Pogon Szczecin 37.7% 2.66 +0.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 55.7% 1.80 — —
Both teams to score Yes 51.1% 1.96 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 71.5% 1.40 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 62.5% 1.60 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Slask Wroclaw33.8%
Draw28.5%
Pogon Szczecin37.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.544.3%
Under 2.555.7%
Both teams to scoreYes51.1%
No48.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)62.3%
12 (either side)71.5%
X2 (draw or away)66.2%
Handicap -1Pogon Szczecin win17.2%
Push (exactly one goal)20.3%
Loss62.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.2%
0-09.9%
0-19.8%

Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin stats

Slask Wroclaw and Pogon Szczecin recent form

newest first
Slask Wroclaw DDLDWL
Pogon Szczecin DDWWLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Slask Wroclaw wins 2Draws 4Pogon Szczecin wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-03-07Slask WroclawPogon SzczecinEkstraklasa1-1
2024-09-01Pogon SzczecinSlask WroclawEkstraklasa5-3
2024-02-11Slask WroclawPogon SzczecinEkstraklasa0-1
2023-08-30Pogon SzczecinSlask WroclawEkstraklasa0-2
2023-02-05Pogon SzczecinSlask WroclawEkstraklasa0-2
2022-07-24Slask WroclawPogon SzczecinEkstraklasa2-1
2022-05-07Slask WroclawPogon SzczecinEkstraklasa1-1
2021-11-21Pogon SzczecinSlask WroclawEkstraklasa2-1
2021-02-28Slask WroclawPogon SzczecinEkstraklasa2-1
2020-09-19Pogon SzczecinSlask WroclawEkstraklasa1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 34.3%, draw 28.1%, away 37.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.50 3.30 2.40
1xBet 2.64 3.18 2.39
Bet365 2.70 3.20 2.38
BetVictor 2.63 3.40 2.40
Betfair 2.60 3.40 2.38
Dafabet 2.70 3.35 2.50
Marathonbet 2.64 3.18 2.39
Pinnacle 2.69 3.24 2.43
SBO 2.46 2.98 2.28
Superbet 2.50 3.25 2.62
Unibet 2.60 3.10 2.43
William Hill 2.70 3.00 2.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.63 —
X 3.22 ▲ +0.02
2 2.40 ▼ -0.03

2 snapshots recorded, from .