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Segunda Liga · Full time ·Matchday 6

Amarante vs União de Leiria

2 – 2 Full time

4′Albert LottinTharlley Oliveira Da Silva
23′Ian Custódio dos Anjos
41′feliciano mendes
45′ruben ramos
46′José Nabil Ondo Onva AdjuguDamien Loppy
46′Tharlley Oliveira Da SilvaDiogo Martins
46′Ian Custódio dos AnjosRicardo joao
51′Juan Muñoz
62′melvin costaArome Emmanuel Idache
62′Simão SilvaFernando de Lacerda Gomes
69′jaiminhoJair silva da goncalves
75′Pablo FernandezSamuel Ntanda-Lukisa
80′Jair silva da goncalves
82′Goncalo cunha
90′Luís MachadoRodrigo Beirão
90′Abdoul zangreRodrigo Barata Gorgueira Alves Guedes
90′Rodrigo Barata Gorgueira Alves Guedes

Amarante Stadium, AmaranteReferee: A. Rodrigues

Amarante 31%
Draw 30%
União de Leiria 39%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

8 Shots 17
4 Shots on target 7
41 Possession % 59
5 Corners 5

Amarante vs União de Leiria overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Amarante vs União de Leiria

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAmaranteDrawUnião de Leiria
Model28.4%29.8%41.9%
Market32.5%29.6%37.9%
Final31.5%29.6%38.9%
Edge-4.1%+0.2%+3.9%

Confidence: Low

Why União de Leiria

  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices União de Leiria below the model: +3.9 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Amarante ↓ / União de Leiri → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 11% 8% 1 8% 14% 9% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 71%
3+ goals 44%
No goals 10%

Amarante and União de Leiria expected goals

Amarante 1.07
União de Leiria 1.35

Total expected goals: 2.42

Amarante and União de Leiria attack and defence ratings

Amarante

Attack 0.85 -15%
Defence 0.99 -1%

União de Leiria

Attack 1.19 +19%
Defence 1.01 +1%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Amarante vs União de Leiria: result vs prediction

Amarante 2 – 2 União de Leiria

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Segunda Liga

Before and after this match

Amarante vs União de Leiria markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 União de Leiria 38.9% 2.57 +3.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 56.4% 1.77 — —
Both teams to score No 50.0% 2.00 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 70.4% 1.42 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 58.2% 1.72 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Amarante31.5%
Draw29.6%
União de Leiria38.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.543.6%
Under 2.556.4%
Both teams to scoreYes50.0%
No50.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)61.1%
12 (either side)70.4%
X2 (draw or away)68.5%
Handicap -1União de Leiria win20.1%
Push (exactly one goal)21.7%
Loss58.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.1%
0-110.7%
0-010.2%

Amarante vs União de Leiria stats

Amarante and União de Leiria recent form

newest first
Amarante LWDLLL
União de Leiria WWWLLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Amarante and União de Leiria going into this match

league record before kick-off

Amarante record

  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.

União de Leiria record

  • They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.

Amarante vs União de Leiria head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Amarante vs União de Leiria odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 32.5%, draw 29.6%, away 37.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.93 3.08 2.46
Bet365 2.80 2.90 2.38
BetVictor 2.80 3.10 2.40
Betano 2.92 3.15 2.42
Betfair 2.75 3.10 2.38
Marathonbet 2.91 3.08 2.44
Pinnacle 3.01 3.17 2.50
SBO 2.64 2.91 2.23
William Hill 2.80 2.90 2.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.80 ▼ -0.17
X 3.08 ▼ -0.07
2 2.40 ▲ +0.04

12 snapshots recorded, from .