Taça de Portugal
·
Full time
·Round of 128
Estrela Calheta
vs
Vianense
1 – 3 Full time
| 23′ | L. Nsonga | ||
| 55′ | T. Carvalho | ||
| 67′ | Reko | ||
| 86′ | M. Conceicao |
Estrela Calheta
11%
Draw
12%
Vianense
77%
Estrela Calheta vs Vianense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Estrela Calheta vs Vianense
| Probability | Estrela Calheta | Draw | Vianense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 10.6% | 11.9% | 77.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 10.6% | 11.9% | 77.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Vianense
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.78 vs 1.55.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 4 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
99%
2+ goals
97%
3+ goals
90%
No goals
1%
Estrela Calheta and Vianense expected goals
Estrela Calheta
1.55
Vianense
3.78
Total expected goals: 5.33
Estrela Calheta and Vianense attack and defence ratings
Estrela Calheta
Attack
0.94 -6%
Defence
1.57 +57%
Vianense
Attack
1.64 +64%
Defence
0.97 -3%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Estrela Calheta vs Vianense: result vs prediction
Estrela Calheta 1 – 3 Vianense
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Round of 128 fixtures
Before and after this match
Estrela Calheta vs Vianense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vianense | 77.4% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 90.1% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77.2% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 89.4% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Vianense win | 61.6% | 1.62 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Estrela Calheta | 10.6% |
| Draw | 11.9% | |
| Vianense | 77.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 90.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 9.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77.2% |
| No | 22.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 22.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 88.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 89.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Vianense win | 61.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.6% | |
| Loss | 22.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-3 | 6.8% |
| 1-4 | 6.4% | |
| 1-2 | 5.3% |
Estrela Calheta vs Vianense stats
Estrela Calheta and Vianense recent form
| Estrela Calheta |
L |
| Vianense |
WLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 1 completed matches.