Taça de Portugal
·
Full time
·Round of 128
Guarda
vs
Chaves
2 – 3 Full time
| 4′ | W. Tavares | ||
| 13′ | Chaves | ||
| 42′ | Chaves | ||
| 62′ | Guarda | ||
| 73′ | Guarda |
Guarda
69%
Draw
18%
Chaves
13%
Guarda vs Chaves overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Guarda vs Chaves
| Probability | Guarda | Draw | Chaves |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69.0% | 17.9% | 13.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 69.0% | 17.9% | 13.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Guarda
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.58 vs 1.09.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
97%
2+ goals
89%
3+ goals
71%
No goals
3%
Guarda and Chaves expected goals
Guarda
2.58
Chaves
1.09
Total expected goals: 3.67
Guarda and Chaves attack and defence ratings
Guarda
Attack
1.46 +46%
Defence
0.83 -17%
Chaves
Attack
0.88 -12%
Defence
1.04 +4%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Guarda vs Chaves: result vs prediction
Guarda 2 – 3 Chaves
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Round of 128 fixtures
Before and after this match
Guarda vs Chaves markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Guarda | 69.0% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.1% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.0% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.0% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Guarda win | 48.0% | 2.08 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Guarda | 69.0% |
| Draw | 17.9% | |
| Chaves | 13.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 28.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.0% |
| No | 38.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 82.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 31.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Guarda win | 48.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 31.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.2% |
| 2-0 | 8.5% | |
| 3-1 | 8.0% |