Liga I · 2026-10-10T18:30:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 11

FCSB vs Oţelul

1 – 0 Full time

3′			Habib Sylla
14′			Ofri Arad
45′			Valentin Crețu
47′			Denis Bordun
54′			Habib Sylla
54′			Ze TurboDominick Zator
54′			Denis BordunAlexandru Viorel Bălănică
56′			Ofri AradJoao Paulo Fernandes
57′			Paul Arnold GaritaAlexandru Stoian
59′			Giannis Christopoulos
65′			Alexandru Stoian
78′			Meriton KorenicaDennis Politic
78′			Juri CisottiEddy Gnahoré
80′			Andrei CiobanuJoão Paulino
90′			Pedro NunoDan Cristian Neicu
90′			Rafael BritoDragos Andrei Aftene

Arena Națională, BucharestReferee: George Catalin Roman

FCSB

58%

Draw

22%

Oţelul

20%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

21	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	1
66	Possession %	34
6	Corners	3
12	Fouls	12
4	Offsides	0
1	Saves	3
471	Accurate passes	201

FCSB vs Oţelul overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FCSB vs Oţelul

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	FCSB	Draw	Oţelul
Model	39.8%	24.3%	35.9%
Market	63.7%	21.0%	15.3%
Final	57.7%	21.8%	20.4%
Edge	-6.0%	+0.8%	+5.1%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

96%

2+ goals

87%

3+ goals

67%

No goals

FCSB and Oţelul expected goals

FCSB

1.78

Oţelul

1.68

Total expected goals: 3.45

FCSB and Oţelul attack and defence ratings

FCSB

Attack

1.00 +0%

Defence

1.55 +55%

Oţelul

Attack

1.02 +2%

Defence

1.18 +18%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FCSB vs Oţelul: result vs prediction

FCSB 1 – 0 Oţelul

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick	✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Liga I

Corvinul Hunedoara vs FC Voluntari — team news & stats · 2026-10-09
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Dinamo Bucuresti · 2026-10-09
FC Botosani vs Uta Arad — team news & stats · 2026-10-10
Csikszereda v Universitatea Craiova — match page · 2026-10-11
Farul Constanta vs Petrolul Ploiesti — team news & stats · 2026-10-11
Arges Pitesti v CFR 1907 Cluj — match page · 2026-10-12
Universitatea Cluj vs Rapid · 2026-10-12

Before and after this match

FCSB, previous: Universitatea Craiova vs FCSB: odds and pick
FCSB, next: FC Voluntari v FCSB analysis
Oţelul, previous: Oţelul v Corvinul Hunedoara analysis
Oţelul, next: Oţelul vs Csikszereda: odds and pick

FCSB vs Oţelul markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	FCSB	57.7%	1.73	-6.0%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	67.1%	1.49	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	68.5%	1.46	—	—
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	79.6%	1.26	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	60.1%	1.66	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	FCSB	57.7%
	Draw	21.8%
	Oţelul	20.4%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	67.1%
	Under 2.5	32.9%
Both teams to score	Yes	68.5%
	No	31.5%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	79.6%
	12 (either side)	78.2%
	X2 (draw or away)	42.3%
Handicap -1	FCSB win	21.5%
	Push (exactly one goal)	18.4%
	Loss	60.1%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	10.4%
	2-1	8.4%
	1-2	7.9%

FCSB vs Oţelul stats

FCSB and Oţelul recent form

newest first

FCSB	LDLLLW
Oţelul	LLLDWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FCSB and Oţelul going into this match

league record before kick-off

FCSB record

They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Oţelul record

They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FCSB vs Oţelul head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6FCSB wins 2Draws 2Oţelul wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-04-11	FCSB	Oţelul	Liga I	4-0
2026-02-08	Oţelul	FCSB	Liga I	1-4
2025-09-28	FCSB	Oţelul	Liga I	1-0
2024-12-02	Oţelul	FCSB	Liga I	1-4
2024-07-26	FCSB	Oţelul	Liga I	0-2
2023-12-03	FCSB	Oţelul	Liga I	0-2
2023-10-31	Oţelul	FCSB	Cupa României	1-1
2023-07-29	Oţelul	FCSB	Liga I	0-2
2022-11-10	Oţelul	FCSB	Cupa României	0-0
2022-07-09	Oţelul	FCSB	Friendlies Clubs	0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FCSB vs Oţelul odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 63.7%, draw 21.0%, away 15.3%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	1.43	4.50	6.32
Bet365	1.44	4.00	5.75
BetVictor	1.44	4.20	6.00
Betano	1.47	4.35	5.80
Betfair	1.44	4.40	6.50
Dafabet	1.47	4.50	6.00
Marathonbet	1.42	4.50	6.25
Pinnacle	1.44	4.77	6.72
SBO	1.39	4.00	5.61
William Hill	1.44	4.33	6.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.44 ▼ -0.12

X 4.38 ▲ +0.48

2 6.00 ▲ +0.29

46 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-18T08:10:01Z.