Allsvenskan · 2026-10-12T17:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 23

Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF

1 – 0 Full time

40′			Carl Gustafsson
45′			Jovan MilosavljevićSead Hakšabanović
57′			Andrej Djuric
68′			Miska Ylitolva
69′			Mayckel LahdoAnders Christiansen
69′			Melker HallbergTobias Lauritsen
72′			Otto Rosengren
73′			Abdussalam MagashyNoah Shamoun
73′			vilmer tyrenEskild Dall
78′			Anton Sebastian HöögTheodor Lundbergh
78′			Daniel GudjohnsenEmmanuel Ekong
80′			Victor LarssonSivert Overby
80′			Marius SoderbackAmara Camara
88′			Emmanuel Ekong
88′			Otto RosengrenBleon Kurtulus

Eleda Stadion, MalmöReferee: Oscar Johnson

Malmo FF

58%

Draw

23%

Kalmar FF

19%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

19	Shots	15
6	Shots on target	4
52	Possession %	48
6	Corners	4
21	Fouls	26
3	Offsides	1
4	Saves	5
375	Accurate passes	352

Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Malmo FF	Draw	Kalmar FF
Model	63.4%	21.9%	14.7%
Market	56.0%	23.7%	20.2%
Final	57.9%	23.3%	18.8%
Edge	+1.8%	-0.4%	-1.4%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Malmo FF

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 0.92.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

94%

2+ goals

81%

3+ goals

58%

No goals

Malmo FF and Kalmar FF expected goals

Malmo FF

2.09

Kalmar FF

0.92

Total expected goals: 3.01

Malmo FF and Kalmar FF attack and defence ratings

Malmo FF

Attack

1.16 +16%

Defence

0.86 -14%

Kalmar FF

Attack

0.79 -21%

Defence

1.18 +18%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF: result vs prediction

Malmo FF 1 – 0 Kalmar FF

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick	✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 23 fixtures

Allsvenskan

IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK · 2026-10-09
AIK Stockholm v IF Brommapojkarna — match page · 2026-10-10
Gais vs Sirius — team news & stats · 2026-10-10
Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF · 2026-10-10
Hammarby FF v Djurgardens IF — match page · 2026-10-11
BK Hacken vs Orgryte IS — team news & stats · 2026-10-11
IF Elfsborg vs Halmstad · 2026-10-12

Before and after this match

Malmo FF, previous: Vasteras SK FK – Malmo FF, 2026-09-19
Malmo FF, next: Malmo FF v BK Hacken analysis
Kalmar FF, previous: Kalmar FF vs BK Hacken prediction
Kalmar FF, next: Degerfors IF v Kalmar FF analysis

Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Malmo FF	57.9%	1.73	+1.8%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	58.0%	1.72	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	53.8%	1.86	—	—
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	81.2%	1.23	—	—
Handicap -1	Malmo FF win	40.4%	2.48	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Malmo FF	57.9%
	Draw	23.3%
	Kalmar FF	18.8%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	58.0%
	Under 2.5	42.0%
Both teams to score	Yes	53.8%
	No	46.2%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	81.2%
	12 (either side)	76.7%
	X2 (draw or away)	42.1%
Handicap -1	Malmo FF win	40.4%
	Push (exactly one goal)	23.0%
	Loss	36.6%
Correct score (top 3)	2-0	10.7%
	1-1	10.4%
	2-1	9.9%

Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF stats

Malmo FF and Kalmar FF recent form

newest first

Malmo FF	LWDWWL
Kalmar FF	LLLLDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Malmo FF and Kalmar FF going into this match

league record before kick-off

Malmo FF record

They have won 10 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
They have kept 7 clean sheets in 22 matches.
They have failed to score in 3 of 22 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Kalmar FF record

They have won 5 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 22 matches.
They have failed to score in 11 of 22 matches.

Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Malmo FF wins 3Draws 3Kalmar FF wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-07-20	Kalmar FF	Malmo FF	Allsvenskan	2-2
2026-03-20	Malmo FF	Kalmar FF	Friendlies Clubs	1-1
2024-08-24	Kalmar FF	Malmo FF	Allsvenskan	2-2
2024-05-24	Malmo FF	Kalmar FF	Allsvenskan	5-0
2023-10-08	Kalmar FF	Malmo FF	Allsvenskan	1-0
2023-04-01	Malmo FF	Kalmar FF	Allsvenskan	1-0
2022-08-28	Malmo FF	Kalmar FF	Allsvenskan	0-1
2022-04-03	Kalmar FF	Malmo FF	Allsvenskan	0-1
2021-11-28	Kalmar FF	Malmo FF	Allsvenskan	0-1
2021-06-12	Malmo FF	Kalmar FF	Friendlies Clubs	0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 56.0%, draw 23.7%, away 20.2%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	1.65	3.98	4.70
Bet365	1.65	3.90	4.75
BetVictor	1.65	3.75	4.60
Betano	1.67	3.85	4.65
Betfair	1.67	4.00	4.50
Dafabet	1.70	4.00	4.70
Marathonbet	1.63	3.98	4.75
Pinnacle	1.70	4.26	4.47
SBO	1.71	3.44	3.98
William Hill	1.67	3.90	4.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.67 ▼ -0.08

X 3.94 ▲ +0.16

2 4.62 ▲ +0.42

20 snapshots recorded, from 2026-10-03T08:10:03Z.