Malmo FF
vs
Kalmar FF
Garuda Lions Prediction: Malmo FF
2 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF
| Probability | Malmo FF | Draw | Kalmar FF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63.4% | 21.9% | 14.7% |
| Market | 53.1% | 24.7% | 22.2% |
| Final | 55.7% | 24.0% | 20.3% |
| Edge | +10.3% | -2.8% | -7.5% |
Why Malmo FF
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.10 vs 0.92.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Malmo FF below the model: +10.3 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.82, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF match preview
Malmo FF enters the match against Kalmar FF with a probability of 56% to win, while Kalmar FF has a 20% chance of victory and a 24% likelihood of a draw. The expected goals for Malmo FF stand at 2.09, compared to Kalmar FF's 0.92, indicating a strong offensive performance anticipated from the home side. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-0, occurring with an 11% probability.
Recent form shows Malmo FF with mixed results, recording one win in their last six matches, while Kalmar FF has struggled, with four losses in their last five games. The probability of over 2.5 goals is at 58%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 54%. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Malmo FF and Kalmar FF expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.02
Malmo FF and Kalmar FF attack and defence ratings
Malmo FF
Kalmar FF
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 23 fixtures
Before and after this match
Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Malmo FF | 55.7% | 1.80 | +10.3% | 1.82 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.1% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.8% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.7% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Malmo FF win | 40.5% | 2.47 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Malmo FF | 55.7% |
| Draw | 24.0% | |
| Kalmar FF | 20.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.8% |
| No | 46.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Malmo FF win | 40.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.0% | |
| Loss | 36.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 10.7% |
| 1-1 | 10.4% | |
| 2-1 | 9.9% |
Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF stats
Malmo FF and Kalmar FF recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Malmo FF and Kalmar FF season so far
Malmo FF record
- They have won 10 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kalmar FF record
- They have won 5 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 21 matches.
Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Kalmar FF | Malmo FF | Allsvenskan | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 53.1%, draw 24.7%, away 22.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.76 | 3.78 | 4.22 |
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 3.75 | 4.33 |
| BetVictor | 1.73 | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| Betano | 1.82 | 3.70 | 4.05 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| Dafabet | 1.81 | 3.85 | 4.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.74 | 3.78 | 4.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.78 | 3.96 | 4.05 |
| SBO | 1.75 | 3.26 | 3.71 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .