FC Kharkiv
vs
Karpaty
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Kharkiv
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — FC Kharkiv is the favourite, not a value bet.
FC Kharkiv vs Karpaty overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Kharkiv vs Karpaty
| Probability | FC Kharkiv | Draw | Karpaty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.5% | 29.7% | 32.8% |
| Market | 45.9% | 27.5% | 26.6% |
| Final | 43.8% | 28.0% | 28.2% |
| Edge | -2.1% | +0.6% | +1.5% |
Why FC Kharkiv
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.08, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.9% per unit staked (our 43.8% × 2.08 − 1).
FC Kharkiv vs Karpaty match preview
FC Kharkiv enters the match against Karpaty with a strong recent form, having won their last six matches. Their expected goals for this fixture stand at 1.37, suggesting a solid offensive performance. The model predicts a most likely scoreline of 1-0, occurring with a probability of 12%. In contrast, Karpaty has struggled recently, with two draws and three losses in their last six matches, leading to an expected goals figure of 0.94.
The probabilities indicate a 46% chance for FC Kharkiv to win, a 28% chance for a draw, and a 26% chance for Karpaty to secure victory. Both teams have a 47% likelihood of scoring, while the model suggests a 41% chance for over 2.5 goals in the match. In their last two encounters, FC Kharkiv has recorded one win and one draw against Karpaty, who have yet to win in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Kharkiv and Karpaty expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.47
FC Kharkiv and Karpaty attack and defence ratings
FC Kharkiv
Karpaty
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
FC Kharkiv vs Karpaty markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Kharkiv | 43.8% | 2.28 | -2.1% | 2.08 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.1% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.5% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.0% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.5% | 1.60 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Kharkiv | 43.8% |
| Draw | 28.0% | |
| Karpaty | 28.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.5% |
| No | 48.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Kharkiv win | 17.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.2% | |
| Loss | 62.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.2% |
| 0-0 | 9.7% | |
| 1-0 | 9.6% |
FC Kharkiv vs Karpaty stats
FC Kharkiv and Karpaty recent form
| FC Kharkiv |
WWWWWW |
| Karpaty |
WDDLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Kharkiv and Karpaty season so far
FC Kharkiv record
- They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Karpaty record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
FC Kharkiv vs Karpaty head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | FC Kharkiv | Karpaty | Ukraine Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2025-11-22 | Karpaty | FC Kharkiv | Ukraine Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2024-07-05 | Karpaty | FC Kharkiv | Friendlies Clubs | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FC Kharkiv vs Karpaty odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 45.9%, draw 27.5%, away 26.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.08 | 3.48 | 3.56 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.30 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 2.02 | 3.30 | 3.40 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.30 | 3.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.45 |
| Marathonbet | 2.00 | 3.38 | 3.44 |
| Pinnacle | 1.98 | 3.38 | 3.69 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.25 | 3.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .