San Jose Earthquakes
vs
Minnesota United FC
1 – 5 Full time
San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC
| Probability | San Jose Earthquakes | Draw | Minnesota United FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.0% | 27.0% | 34.1% |
| Market | 42.9% | 25.2% | 32.0% |
| Final | 41.9% | 25.6% | 32.5% |
| Edge | -3.9% | +1.8% | +2.1% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
San Jose Earthquakes and Minnesota United FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.91
San Jose Earthquakes and Minnesota United FC attack and defence ratings
San Jose Earthquakes
Minnesota United FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC: result vs prediction
San Jose Earthquakes 1 – 5 Minnesota United FC
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
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Before and after this match
San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | San Jose Earthquakes | 41.9% | 2.39 | -3.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.9% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.4% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.9% | 1.64 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | San Jose Earthquakes | 41.9% |
| Draw | 25.6% | |
| Minnesota United FC | 32.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.9% |
| No | 40.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | San Jose Earthquakes win | 19.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.5% | |
| Loss | 60.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.7% |
| 2-1 | 8.7% | |
| 1-2 | 8.1% |
San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC stats
San Jose Earthquakes and Minnesota United FC recent form
| San Jose Earthquakes |
LLLDLW |
| Minnesota United FC |
LDWDLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
San Jose Earthquakes and Minnesota United FC going into this match
San Jose Earthquakes record
- They have won 10 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Minnesota United FC record
- They have won 7 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | San Jose Earthquakes | Minnesota United FC | US Open Cup | 4-2 |
| 2025-07-13 | Minnesota United FC | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer | 4-1 |
| 2025-03-09 | San Jose Earthquakes | Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.4%, draw 24.7%, away 31.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.12 | 3.90 | 2.92 |
| 888Sport | 2.10 | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.75 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.80 | 2.88 |
| Betano | 2.25 | 3.75 | 2.95 |
| Betfair | 2.15 | 4.00 | 2.90 |
| Dafabet | 2.26 | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.15 | 3.74 | 2.94 |
| Pinnacle | 2.25 | 3.88 | 2.97 |
| SBO | 2.16 | 3.52 | 2.75 |
| Superbet | 2.22 | 3.75 | 3.00 |
| Unibet | 2.05 | 3.80 | 3.10 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.50 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .