Algeria
vs
Zambia
3 – 1 Full time
| 2′ | Jaouen Hadjam | ||
| 20′ | Amine GouiriAmin Chiakha | ||
| 45′ | Patson DakaDavid Simukonda | ||
| 49′ | Joseph Liteta | ||
| 57′ | Fashion Sakala | ||
| 67′ | Ibrahim Maza | ||
| 68′ | Mathews BandaGhampani Lungu | ||
| 68′ | Miguel Changa ChaiwaOwen Tembo | ||
| 68′ | A. KangwandaLameck Banda | ||
| 71′ | Adem ZorganeHimad Abdelli | ||
| 71′ | Mohamed AmouraAdil Boulbina | ||
| 71′ | Mohamed BelloumiAnis Hadj Moussa | ||
| 74′ | Anis Hadj Moussa | ||
| 77′ | Kingstone MutandwaChanka Zimba | ||
| 82′ | Owen Tembo | ||
| 89′ | S. RadouaniAchraf Abada | ||
| 89′ | Fashion Sakala |
Match stats
| 21 | Shots | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 67 | Possession % | 33 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Offsides | 3 |
| 1 | Saves | 3 |
| 491 | Accurate passes | 196 |
Algeria vs Zambia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Algeria vs Zambia
| Probability | Algeria | Draw | Zambia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.4% | 25.1% | 17.5% |
| Market | 76.3% | 16.7% | 7.0% |
| Final | 71.6% | 18.8% | 9.6% |
| Edge | -18.9% | +8.5% | +10.5% |
Why Algeria
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 0.80.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Algeria and Zambia expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.71
Algeria and Zambia attack and defence ratings
Algeria
Zambia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Algeria vs Zambia: result vs prediction
Algeria 3 – 1 Zambia
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Group Stage - 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Algeria vs Zambia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Algeria | 71.6% | 1.40 | -18.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.6% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.6% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.4% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Algeria win | 38.2% | 2.62 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Algeria | 71.6% |
| Draw | 18.8% | |
| Zambia | 9.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.6% |
| No | 49.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 28.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Algeria win | 38.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.2% | |
| Loss | 37.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.0% |
| 1-0 | 11.0% | |
| 2-0 | 10.9% |
Algeria vs Zambia stats
Algeria vs Zambia head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-03-25 | Zambia | Algeria | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification | 3-3 |
| 2019-11-14 | Algeria | Zambia | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification | 5-0 |
| 2017-09-05 | Algeria | Zambia | World Cup - Qualification Africa | 0-1 |
| 2017-09-02 | Zambia | Algeria | World Cup - Qualification Africa | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Algeria vs Zambia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 76.1%, draw 16.9%, away 7.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.18 | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.20 | 5.75 | 11.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.18 | 5.50 | 15.00 |
| Betano | 1.22 | 5.40 | 13.00 |
| Betfair | 1.25 | 4.60 | 11.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.17 | 6.00 | 15.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.20 | 5.07 | 13.09 |
| SBO | 1.17 | 4.94 | 9.64 |
| William Hill | 1.22 | 5.00 | 13.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .