Sierra Leone
vs
Zimbabwe
2 – 3 Full time
| 7′ | Alie Conteh | ||
| 27′ | Sallieu Capay Tarawallie | ||
| 45′ | Sean FusireBill Leeroy Antonio | ||
| 45′ | Alhassan KoromaKallum Cesay | ||
| 51′ | Shane Maroodza | ||
| 56′ | Juma BahMichael-John Kamson-Kamara | ||
| 57′ | Saidu FofanahAzeem Abdulai | ||
| 68′ | Shane MaroodzaDivine Lunga | ||
| 72′ | Marshall Munetsi | ||
| 74′ | Andy RinomhotaEmmanuel Jalai | ||
| 75′ | Bill Leeroy Antonio | ||
| 76′ | Tawanda Chirewa | ||
| 83′ | Tyrese FornahS Sesay | ||
| 85′ | Thandolwenkosi Methuseli NgwenyaAbubakar Moffat | ||
| 85′ | Munashe GaranangaCorbin Mthunzi | ||
| 88′ | Marshall Munetsi | ||
| 90′ | Momoh Ibrahim KamaraD. Kanu |
Match stats
| 9 | Shots | 16 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 44 | Possession % | 56 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 6 | Offsides | 3 |
| 1 | Saves | 1 |
| 288 | Accurate passes | 367 |
Sierra Leone vs Zimbabwe overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sierra Leone vs Zimbabwe
| Probability | Sierra Leone | Draw | Zimbabwe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.3% | 30.8% | 25.9% |
| Market | 36.2% | 32.9% | 30.9% |
| Final | 38.0% | 32.4% | 29.6% |
| Edge | +7.1% | -2.1% | -5.0% |
Why Sierra Leone
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.44 vs 0.79.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Sierra Leone below the model: +7.1 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sierra Leone and Zimbabwe expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.23
Sierra Leone and Zimbabwe attack and defence ratings
Sierra Leone
Zimbabwe
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Sierra Leone vs Zimbabwe: result vs prediction
Sierra Leone 2 – 3 Zimbabwe
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Group Stage - 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sierra Leone vs Zimbabwe markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sierra Leone | 38.0% | 2.63 | +7.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.0% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.2% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.4% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.6% | 2.06 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sierra Leone | 38.0% |
| Draw | 32.4% | |
| Zimbabwe | 29.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 61.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.8% |
| No | 54.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 67.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sierra Leone win | 26.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.0% | |
| Loss | 48.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 1-0 | 12.4% | |
| 0-0 | 11.9% |
Sierra Leone vs Zimbabwe stats
Sierra Leone and Zimbabwe recent form
| Sierra Leone |
WLWDLW |
| Zimbabwe |
LDLLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sierra Leone vs Zimbabwe head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Sierra Leone vs Zimbabwe odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.2%, draw 32.9%, away 30.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.50 | 2.96 | 2.93 |
| Bet365 | 2.35 | 2.70 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 2.50 | 2.88 | 2.88 |
| Betano | 2.52 | 2.85 | 3.00 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 2.70 | 3.25 |
| Marathonbet | 2.48 | 2.96 | 2.90 |
| Pinnacle | 2.62 | 2.74 | 3.02 |
| SBO | 2.40 | 2.72 | 2.73 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 2.75 | 2.88 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .