Tunisia
vs
Uganda
1 – 1 Full time
| 12′ | Adem Arous | ||
| 45′ | Khalil Ayarisayfallah ltaief | ||
| 45′ | Rayan ElloumiSadok Kadida | ||
| 63′ | Travis MutyabaJames Bogere | ||
| 68′ | Rogers Mato | ||
| 69′ | Ismael GharbiAnis Ben Slimane | ||
| 69′ | Sebastian TounektiElias Achouri | ||
| 77′ | Mohamed Ali Ben RomdhaneHamza Rafia | ||
| 82′ | Rogers MatoSteven Dese Mukwala | ||
| 82′ | Allan OkelloAllan Oyirwoth | ||
| 90′ | Baba AlhassanHilary Mukundane | ||
| 90′ | Aziz Abdu Kayondo | ||
| 90′ | Sadok Kadida |
Match stats
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 55 | Possession % | 45 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 18 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Offsides | 1 |
| 2 | Saves | 3 |
| 412 | Accurate passes | 324 |
Tunisia vs Uganda overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tunisia vs Uganda
| Probability | Tunisia | Draw | Uganda |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.5% | 22.1% | 51.4% |
| Market | 65.7% | 22.6% | 11.7% |
| Final | 55.9% | 22.4% | 21.6% |
| Edge | -39.2% | -0.4% | +39.7% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tunisia and Uganda expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.47
Tunisia and Uganda attack and defence ratings
Tunisia
Uganda
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Tunisia vs Uganda: result vs prediction
Tunisia 1 – 1 Uganda
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Group Stage - 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Tunisia vs Uganda markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tunisia | 55.9% | 1.79 | -39.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.2% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.8% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.4% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.2% | 1.58 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tunisia | 55.9% |
| Draw | 22.4% | |
| Uganda | 21.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 27.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.8% |
| No | 29.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Tunisia win | 19.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.6% | |
| Loss | 63.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 8.9% |
| 1-2 | 8.8% | |
| 2-2 | 6.9% |
Tunisia vs Uganda stats
Tunisia vs Uganda head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-23 | Tunisia | Uganda | Africa Cup of Nations | 3-1 |
| 2017-01-04 | Tunisia | Uganda | Friendlies | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Tunisia vs Uganda odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 65.7%, draw 22.6%, away 11.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.39 | 4.30 | 7.85 |
| Bet365 | 1.38 | 3.70 | 8.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.36 | 4.10 | 8.00 |
| Betano | 1.44 | 4.05 | 7.20 |
| Betfair | 1.47 | 3.50 | 7.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.38 | 4.30 | 7.80 |
| Pinnacle | 1.41 | 4.11 | 7.91 |
| SBO | 1.38 | 3.74 | 6.47 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 3.80 | 7.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .