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Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification · Full time ·Group Stage - 1

Senegal vs Mozambique

1 – 1 Full time

29′Witiness Quembo
32′Nicolas Jackson
38′Ricardo Martins Guimarães
45′Geny Catamo
62′Lamine Camara
63′Pape Matar SarrIbrahim Mbaye
66′Witiness QuemboFernando Data Chamboco
66′Faisal BangalChamito Alfandega
66′Gildo VilanculosAlcídio Raice
72′Bheu JanuárioOscar Cherene
74′Bruno Langa
78′Pape Gueye
83′Assane Diao DiaouneIdrissa Gueye
84′Nicolas JacksonBoulaye Dia
89′Pape GueyePape Moussa Fall
90′Ricardo Martins GuimarãesManuel Nhanga Kambala

Estádio do Zimpeto, MaputoReferee: Ibrahim Mutaz

Senegal 27%
Draw 18%
Mozambique 55%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

14 Shots 7
5 Shots on target 2
66 Possession % 34
10 Corners 1
25 Fouls 11
2 Offsides 4
1 Saves 4
457 Accurate passes 202

Senegal vs Mozambique overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Senegal vs Mozambique

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySenegalDrawMozambique
Model79.0%12.9%8.2%
Market10.2%19.3%70.5%
Final27.4%17.7%54.9%
Edge+68.8%-6.4%-62.3%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Senegal ↓ / Mozambique → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 2 8% 3 8% 8% 4+ 14% 15% 8%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 93%
3+ goals 80%
No goals 2%

Senegal and Mozambique expected goals

Senegal 3.24
Mozambique 1.05

Total expected goals: 4.29

Senegal and Mozambique attack and defence ratings

Senegal

Attack 1.75 +75%
Defence 0.95 -5%

Mozambique

Attack 0.96 -4%
Defence 1.42 +42%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Senegal vs Mozambique: result vs prediction

Senegal 1 – 1 Mozambique

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Group Stage - 1 fixtures

Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

Before and after this match

Senegal vs Mozambique markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Mozambique 54.9% 1.82 -62.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 80.1% 1.25 — —
Both teams to score Yes 63.0% 1.59 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 82.3% 1.21 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 91.8% 1.09 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Senegal27.4%
Draw17.7%
Mozambique54.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.580.1%
Under 2.519.9%
Both teams to scoreYes63.0%
No37.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)45.1%
12 (either side)82.3%
X2 (draw or away)72.6%
Handicap -1Mozambique win2.8%
Push (exactly one goal)5.3%
Loss91.8%
Correct score (top 3)3-18.2%
3-07.7%
2-17.6%

Senegal vs Mozambique stats

Senegal and Mozambique recent form

newest first
Senegal LWLLWW
Mozambique LLWLWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Senegal vs Mozambique head-to-head

Last 4 meetings

3Senegal wins 1Draws 0Mozambique wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2023-03-28MozambiqueSenegalAfrica Cup of Nations - Qualification0-1
2023-03-24SenegalMozambiqueAfrica Cup of Nations - Qualification5-1
2022-07-17MozambiqueSenegalCOSAFA Cup1-1
2021-07-09SenegalMozambiqueCOSAFA Cup1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Senegal vs Mozambique odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 10.2%, draw 19.3%, away 70.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 9.65 4.90 1.30
Bet365 9.00 4.75 1.30
BetVictor 9.50 4.75 1.29
Betano 8.50 4.65 1.35
Betfair 9.00 4.75 1.29
Marathonbet 9.60 4.90 1.28
Pinnacle 9.97 4.69 1.31
SBO 6.95 4.24 1.28
William Hill 9.00 4.40 1.30

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 9.00 ▼ -4.50
X 4.75 ▼ -1.25
2 1.30 ▲ +0.10

4 snapshots recorded, from .