Mozambique
vs
Sudan
4 – 1 Full time
| 23′ | Gildo VilanculosCândido Osvaldo Mathe | ||
| 24′ | Witiness Quembo | ||
| 45′ | Bheu JanuárioOscar Cherene | ||
| 45′ | Faisal BangalChamito Alfandega | ||
| 46′ | Chamito Alfandega | ||
| 50′ | Alfonso Amade | ||
| 54′ | Ahmed Yousif Tabanja | ||
| 58′ | Ricardo Martins Guimarães | ||
| 62′ | Chamito Alfandega | ||
| 64′ | Mohamed EisaJohn Mano | ||
| 64′ | Aamir Abdallah YunisYasir Mozamil | ||
| 66′ | Witiness QuemboEdson Joelder Lobo Mucuana | ||
| 72′ | Ricardo Martins Guimarães | ||
| 73′ | Musa Hussein AliAhmed Hamid | ||
| 73′ | Walieldin KhidirSalaheldin Adil Ahmed Alhassan | ||
| 75′ | Alfonso AmadeFeliciano Jone | ||
| 77′ | Abdelrazig OmerYasin Hamed | ||
| 80′ | Ammar Kamaleldin Taifour | ||
| 88′ | Yasin Hamed |
Match stats
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 65 | Possession % | 35 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Offsides | 4 |
| 3 | Saves | 1 |
| 520 | Accurate passes | 250 |
Mozambique vs Sudan overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mozambique vs Sudan
| Probability | Mozambique | Draw | Sudan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.5% | 31.2% | 25.3% |
| Market | 47.8% | 31.5% | 20.7% |
| Final | 46.7% | 31.4% | 21.9% |
| Edge | -4.3% | -0.2% | +4.6% |
Why Mozambique
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.26 vs 0.91.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mozambique and Sudan expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.17
Mozambique and Sudan attack and defence ratings
Mozambique
Sudan
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Mozambique vs Sudan: result vs prediction
Mozambique 4 – 1 Sudan
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Group Stage - 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mozambique vs Sudan markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mozambique | 46.7% | 2.14 | -4.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.6% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.1% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.0% | 1.75 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mozambique | 46.7% |
| Draw | 31.4% | |
| Sudan | 21.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.4% |
| No | 55.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mozambique win | 19.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.0% | |
| Loss | 57.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.4% |
| 1-0 | 13.0% | |
| 0-0 | 12.5% |
Mozambique vs Sudan stats
Mozambique and Sudan recent form
| Mozambique |
DLLWLW |
| Sudan |
WLLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Mozambique vs Sudan head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Mozambique vs Sudan odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.8%, draw 31.5%, away 20.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.89 | 3.04 | 4.52 |
| Bet365 | 1.90 | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| BetVictor | 1.91 | 2.90 | 4.40 |
| Betano | 1.95 | 2.90 | 4.45 |
| Betfair | 1.90 | 2.90 | 4.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.87 | 3.04 | 4.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.92 | 2.87 | 4.79 |
| SBO | 1.92 | 2.67 | 3.52 |
| William Hill | 1.91 | 2.80 | 4.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .