Sudan
vs
Ethiopia
1 – 0 Full time
| 55′ | mesfin taffese | ||
| 61′ | mesfin taffesetilahuni fitsumi | ||
| 61′ | Bakhit KhamisAhmed Yousif Tabanja | ||
| 69′ | Ammar Kamaleldin TaifourSalaheldin Adil Ahmed Alhassan | ||
| 69′ | Aamir Abdallah YunisYasir Mozamil | ||
| 76′ | abed yalewCarlose damtew | ||
| 81′ | samuel yohannes | ||
| 83′ | Gathuoch Panom | ||
| 85′ | samuel bereket | ||
| 86′ | Mohamed Eisa | ||
| 90′ | Sudan |
Sudan vs Ethiopia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sudan vs Ethiopia
| Probability | Sudan | Draw | Ethiopia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21.7% | 34.0% | 44.3% |
| Market | 50.6% | 29.1% | 20.3% |
| Final | 43.4% | 30.3% | 26.3% |
| Edge | -28.9% | +4.9% | +24.1% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sudan and Ethiopia expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.84
Sudan and Ethiopia attack and defence ratings
Sudan
Ethiopia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Sudan vs Ethiopia: result vs prediction
Sudan 1 – 0 Ethiopia
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Group Stage - 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sudan vs Ethiopia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sudan | 43.4% | 2.30 | -28.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 72.1% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 64.4% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.7% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 78.3% | 1.28 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sudan | 43.4% |
| Draw | 30.3% | |
| Ethiopia | 26.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 27.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 72.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35.6% |
| No | 64.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sudan win | 6.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.2% | |
| Loss | 78.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 17.2% |
| 0-1 | 16.7% | |
| 1-1 | 14.0% |
Sudan vs Ethiopia stats
Sudan vs Ethiopia head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-25 | Sudan | Ethiopia | African Nations Championship - Qualification | 2-1 |
| 2024-12-22 | Ethiopia | Sudan | African Nations Championship - Qualification | 0-2 |
| 2021-12-30 | Sudan | Ethiopia | Friendlies | 2-3 |
| 2017-08-17 | Sudan | Ethiopia | African Nations Championship | 1-0 |
| 2017-08-12 | Ethiopia | Sudan | African Nations Championship | 1-1 |
| 2015-12-05 | Ethiopia | Sudan | CECAFA Senior Challenge Cup | 1-1 |
| 2013-12-08 | Ethiopia | Sudan | CECAFA Senior Challenge Cup | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sudan vs Ethiopia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 50.6%, draw 29.1%, away 20.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.78 | 3.32 | 4.61 |
| Bet365 | 1.73 | 3.10 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.13 | 4.50 |
| Betano | 1.83 | 3.20 | 4.50 |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 3.10 | 4.10 |
| Marathonbet | 1.76 | 3.32 | 4.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.79 | 3.24 | 4.72 |
| SBO | 1.87 | 2.88 | 3.74 |
| William Hill | 1.83 | 3.00 | 4.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .