Ethiopia
vs
Senegal
0 – 1 Full time
| 11′ | Ibrahim Mbaye | ||
| 19′ | Pape Gueye | ||
| 45′ | Abed YalewBinyam Belay | ||
| 48′ | Malang Sarr | ||
| 55′ | Assane Diao DiaouneIdrissa Gueye | ||
| 59′ | B. FikruF Gebre | ||
| 65′ | Abdallah SimaIssa Soumaré | ||
| 65′ | Pape GueyeBara Sapoko Ndiaye | ||
| 70′ | Idrissa Gueye | ||
| 82′ | Canaan MarknehDukele Dawa Hotessa | ||
| 82′ | Gathouch PanomCarlos Damtew | ||
| 89′ | Nicolas JacksonPape Moussa Fall | ||
| 89′ | Lamine Sy | ||
| 90′ | Yared Bayeh | ||
| 90′ | Ibrahim MbayeLamine Sy |
Match stats
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 39 | Possession % | 61 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 7 |
| 7 | Offsides | 0 |
| 2 | Saves | 1 |
| 214 | Accurate passes | 393 |
Ethiopia vs Senegal overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ethiopia vs Senegal
| Probability | Ethiopia | Draw | Senegal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29.2% | 27.2% | 43.6% |
| Market | 12.1% | 20.6% | 67.3% |
| Final | 16.4% | 22.3% | 61.3% |
| Edge | +17.1% | +6.5% | -23.7% |
Why Senegal
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 1.23.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ethiopia and Senegal expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.80
Ethiopia and Senegal attack and defence ratings
Ethiopia
Senegal
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Ethiopia vs Senegal: result vs prediction
Ethiopia 0 – 1 Senegal
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Group Stage - 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ethiopia vs Senegal markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Senegal | 61.3% | 1.63 | -23.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.5% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.6% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 83.6% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.1% | 1.78 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ethiopia | 16.4% |
| Draw | 22.3% | |
| Senegal | 61.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.6% |
| No | 42.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 38.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 83.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Senegal win | 22.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.0% | |
| Loss | 56.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.9% |
| 1-2 | 9.2% | |
| 0-1 | 8.2% |
Ethiopia vs Senegal stats
Ethiopia vs Senegal head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Ethiopia vs Senegal odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 12.1%, draw 20.6%, away 67.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 6.87 | 4.85 | 1.37 |
| Bet365 | 6.50 | 4.50 | 1.33 |
| BetVictor | 8.50 | 4.40 | 1.33 |
| Betano | 10.00 | 5.20 | 1.37 |
| Betfair | 8.50 | 4.40 | 1.30 |
| Marathonbet | 6.80 | 4.85 | 1.36 |
| Pinnacle | 7.83 | 4.22 | 1.35 |
| SBO | 6.38 | 3.86 | 1.32 |
| William Hill | 7.50 | 4.20 | 1.36 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .