Senegal
vs
Sudan
Garuda Lions Prediction: Senegal
2 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.32 vs 0.65.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Senegal is the favourite, not a value bet.
Senegal vs Sudan overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Senegal vs Sudan
| Probability | Senegal | Draw | Sudan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 74.2% | 17.9% | 8.0% |
| Market | 85.6% | 9.3% | 5.1% |
| Final | 82.7% | 11.4% | 5.8% |
| Edge | -2.9% | +2.1% | +0.7% |
Why Senegal
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.32 vs 0.65.
Best available price on the pick: 1.02, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -15.6% per unit staked (our 82.7% × 1.02 − 1).
Senegal vs Sudan match preview
In the upcoming Africa Cup of Nations qualification match, Senegal faces Sudan with a strong probability of victory for the hosts at 83%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, occurring with a 14% likelihood. Senegal's expected goals stand at 2.32, while Sudan's are significantly lower at 0.65, indicating a potential dominance by the home side.
Recent form shows Senegal with a mixed record of W-D-L-W-L-L, while Sudan has struggled, recording L-W-L-L-W-L. In their last three encounters, Senegal has secured two wins and one draw against Sudan, who has yet to register a victory in this matchup. The model also suggests a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% likelihood that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Senegal and Sudan expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.98
Senegal and Sudan attack and defence ratings
Senegal
Sudan
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Group Stage - 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Senegal vs Sudan markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Senegal | 82.7% | 1.21 | -2.9% | 1.02 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.2% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 94.2% | 1.06 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Senegal win | 51.5% | 1.94 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Senegal | 82.7% |
| Draw | 11.4% | |
| Sudan | 5.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.1% |
| No | 55.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 94.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 88.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 17.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Senegal win | 51.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 25.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 13.7% |
| 1-0 | 11.0% | |
| 3-0 | 10.6% |
Senegal vs Sudan stats
Senegal vs Sudan head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-03 | Senegal | Sudan | Africa Cup of Nations | 3-1 |
| 2025-09-05 | Senegal | Sudan | World Cup - Qualification Africa | 2-0 |
| 2025-03-22 | Sudan | Senegal | World Cup - Qualification Africa | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Senegal vs Sudan odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 85.6%, draw 9.3%, away 5.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.02 | 9.40 | 17.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
48 snapshots recorded, from .