Madagascar
vs
Guinea-Bissau
Garuda Lions Prediction: Guinea-Bissau
0 – 1 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau
| Probability | Madagascar | Draw | Guinea-Bissau |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.5% | 31.8% | 35.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 32.5% | 31.8% | 35.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau match preview
Madagascar faces Guinea-Bissau in the Africa Cup of Nations qualification match on November 11, 2026. According to our model, Madagascar has a 32% chance of winning, while Guinea-Bissau holds a slight edge with a 36% probability. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, occurring at an 11% likelihood. Both teams show a moderate chance of scoring, with 46% probability for both teams to find the net.
In terms of expected goals, Madagascar is projected to score 1.07, while Guinea-Bissau is slightly favored with an expectation of 1.13 goals. Recent form shows Madagascar with two wins and a draw in their last three matches, while Guinea-Bissau has two wins and a draw in their recent outings. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Madagascar and Guinea-Bissau expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.20
Madagascar and Guinea-Bissau attack and defence ratings
Madagascar
Guinea-Bissau
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Group Stage - 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Guinea-Bissau | 35.7% | 2.80 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.3% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.2% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 68.2% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.3% | 1.56 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Madagascar | 32.5% |
| Draw | 31.8% | |
| Guinea-Bissau | 35.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.8% |
| No | 54.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Guinea-Bissau win | 15.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.5% | |
| Loss | 64.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.7% |
| 0-0 | 12.4% | |
| 0-1 | 11.2% |
Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau stats
Madagascar and Guinea-Bissau recent form
| Madagascar |
DLLWWW |
| Guinea-Bissau |
WWLLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.