Madagascar
vs
Tanzania
1 – 1 Full time
| 35′ | Ibrahim Hamad | ||
| 39′ | Cyprian Kachwele | ||
| 45′ | Radoniaina Rabemanantsoa | ||
| 45′ | Loic LapoussinHakim Abdallah | ||
| 50′ | Nicolas Paul Julien Fontaine | ||
| 61′ | Nicolas Paul Julien FontaineRyan Ponti | ||
| 67′ | Miano Van Den BosHaji Mnoga | ||
| 69′ | Cyprian KachweleSimon Msuva | ||
| 70′ | Feisal SalumCharles M'Mombwa | ||
| 81′ | Warren CaddyRoman Ferber | ||
| 81′ | Sandro TremouletThomas Fontaine | ||
| 81′ | Mohamed Hussein Pascal Msindo | ||
| 81′ | Abdul Hamisi SuleimanSelemani Mwalimu | ||
| 85′ | Himid Mao Mkami | ||
| 90′ | Marco IlaimaharitraRijaniaina Nicolas Randriamanampisoa | ||
| 90′ | Rijaniaina Nicolas Randriamanampisoa |
Match stats
| 7 | Shots | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 59 | Possession % | 41 |
| 3 | Corners | 0 |
| 18 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Offsides | 2 |
| 2 | Saves | 3 |
| 480 | Accurate passes | 317 |
Madagascar vs Tanzania overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Madagascar vs Tanzania
| Probability | Madagascar | Draw | Tanzania |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61.6% | 25.5% | 12.8% |
| Market | 39.6% | 31.4% | 29.1% |
| Final | 45.1% | 29.9% | 25.0% |
| Edge | +22.1% | -5.8% | -16.2% |
Why Madagascar
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.56 vs 0.69.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Madagascar below the model: +22.1 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Madagascar and Tanzania expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.25
Madagascar and Tanzania attack and defence ratings
Madagascar
Tanzania
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Madagascar vs Tanzania: result vs prediction
Madagascar 1 – 1 Tanzania
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Group Stage - 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Madagascar vs Tanzania markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Madagascar | 45.1% | 2.22 | +22.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.4% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.9% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.0% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.9% | 2.33 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Madagascar | 45.1% |
| Draw | 29.9% | |
| Tanzania | 25.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.1% |
| No | 59.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Madagascar win | 31.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.9% | |
| Loss | 42.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.2% |
| 2-0 | 13.8% | |
| 1-1 | 11.6% |
Madagascar vs Tanzania stats
Madagascar and Tanzania recent form
| Madagascar |
LLWWWL |
| Tanzania |
LLDDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Madagascar vs Tanzania head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-09 | Tanzania | Madagascar | African Nations Championship | 2-1 |
| 2025-06-07 | Tanzania | Madagascar | COSAFA Cup | 0-1 |
| 2021-11-14 | Madagascar | Tanzania | World Cup - Qualification Africa | 1-1 |
| 2021-09-07 | Tanzania | Madagascar | World Cup - Qualification Africa | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Madagascar vs Tanzania odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.6%, draw 31.4%, away 29.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.30 | 3.04 | 3.17 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 2.90 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 2.90 | 3.13 |
| Betano | 2.40 | 2.85 | 3.20 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 2.90 | 3.10 |
| Marathonbet | 2.28 | 3.02 | 3.16 |
| Pinnacle | 2.40 | 2.74 | 3.38 |
| SBO | 2.30 | 2.70 | 2.66 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 2.80 | 3.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .