Nigeria
vs
Tanzania
Garuda Lions Prediction: Nigeria
1 – 0 Predicted score · 18% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 0.52.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Nigeria vs Tanzania overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nigeria vs Tanzania
| Probability | Nigeria | Draw | Tanzania |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65.4% | 24.7% | 9.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 65.4% | 24.7% | 9.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Nigeria
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 0.52.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Nigeria vs Tanzania match preview
Nigeria is favored to win against Tanzania in the Africa Cup of Nations qualification match, with a 65% probability of victory according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, predicted at 18%. Nigeria's expected goals stand at 1.70, while Tanzania's is significantly lower at 0.52. Recent form shows Nigeria with two wins in their last five matches, while Tanzania has struggled, managing only two draws and three losses in the same period.
Tanzania's chances of winning are estimated at 10%, reflecting their recent performance, which includes three consecutive matches without a win. The probability of a draw is set at 25%. Both teams to score is predicted at 34%, and the likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 38%, suggesting a potentially low-scoring encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nigeria and Tanzania expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.22
Nigeria and Tanzania attack and defence ratings
Nigeria
Tanzania
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Group Stage - 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Nigeria vs Tanzania markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nigeria | 65.4% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.8% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 66.0% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.2% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Nigeria win | 38.5% | 2.60 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nigeria | 65.4% |
| Draw | 24.7% | |
| Tanzania | 9.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 61.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 34.0% |
| No | 66.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 34.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Nigeria win | 38.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27.0% | |
| Loss | 34.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 17.5% |
| 2-0 | 15.7% | |
| 0-0 | 11.8% |
Nigeria vs Tanzania stats
Nigeria vs Tanzania head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-23 | Nigeria | Tanzania | Africa Cup of Nations | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.