Congo DR
vs
Sierra Leone
Garuda Lions Prediction: Congo DR
1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.44 vs 0.74.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Congo DR is the favourite, not a value bet.
Congo DR vs Sierra Leone overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Congo DR vs Sierra Leone
| Probability | Congo DR | Draw | Sierra Leone |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.5% | 29.4% | 18.1% |
| Market | 80.3% | 14.5% | 5.2% |
| Final | 73.4% | 18.2% | 8.4% |
| Edge | -6.9% | +3.7% | +3.2% |
Why Congo DR
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.44 vs 0.74.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.10, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -19.3% per unit staked (our 73.4% × 1.10 − 1).
Congo DR vs Sierra Leone match preview
Congo DR enters this Africa Cup of Nations qualification match against Sierra Leone with a strong probability of winning at 73%. Their recent form shows two wins, one loss, and a draw in the last six matches, indicating a competitive edge. The expected goals for Congo DR stand at 1.44, suggesting they are likely to create more scoring opportunities compared to Sierra Leone, whose expected goals are at 0.74.
Sierra Leone, on the other hand, has struggled recently, with two losses in their last three matches. Their probability of winning is only 8%, reflecting their challenging form. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Congo DR, with a 15% chance of occurring. Additionally, there is a 41% likelihood that both teams will score during the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Congo DR and Sierra Leone expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.18
Congo DR and Sierra Leone attack and defence ratings
Congo DR
Sierra Leone
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Group Stage - 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Congo DR vs Sierra Leone markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Congo DR | 73.4% | 1.36 | -6.9% | 1.10 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.7% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.7% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.6% | 1.09 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.5% | 2.11 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Congo DR | 73.4% |
| Draw | 18.2% | |
| Sierra Leone | 8.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.3% |
| No | 58.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 26.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Congo DR win | 27.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.4% | |
| Loss | 47.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.0% |
| 1-1 | 13.3% | |
| 0-0 | 12.5% |
Congo DR vs Sierra Leone stats
Congo DR and Sierra Leone recent form
| Congo DR |
WWLWLD |
| Sierra Leone |
LLWLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Congo DR vs Sierra Leone head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Congo DR vs Sierra Leone odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 80.3%, draw 14.5%, away 5.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.10 | 6.09 | 17.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
49 snapshots recorded, from .