Guinea
vs
Eritrea
Garuda Lions Prediction: Guinea
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 0.86.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Guinea is the favourite, not a value bet.
Guinea vs Eritrea overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Guinea vs Eritrea
| Probability | Guinea | Draw | Eritrea |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.6% | 27.9% | 19.5% |
| Market | 76.4% | 17.5% | 6.1% |
| Final | 70.4% | 20.1% | 9.5% |
| Edge | -6.0% | +2.6% | +3.4% |
Why Guinea
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 0.86.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.18, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -16.9% per unit staked (our 70.4% × 1.18 − 1).
Guinea vs Eritrea match preview
In the upcoming Africa Cup of Nations qualification match, Guinea is favored with a 70% probability of winning against Eritrea, who has a 9% chance of victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Guinea, with a 13% likelihood. Expected goals for Guinea stand at 1.55, while Eritrea is projected to score 0.86.
Recent form shows Guinea with a record of W-L-D-W-D-W, indicating a solid performance, while Eritrea has struggled with L-D-W-W-L-L. The probability of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 43%, and both teams scoring is assessed at 47%. Despite Guinea's strong position, the confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the outcome.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Guinea and Eritrea expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.41
Guinea and Eritrea attack and defence ratings
Guinea
Eritrea
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Group Stage - 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Guinea vs Eritrea markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Guinea | 70.4% | 1.42 | -6.0% | 1.18 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.6% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.5% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.4% | 2.11 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Guinea | 70.4% |
| Draw | 20.1% | |
| Eritrea | 9.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.6% |
| No | 53.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 29.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Guinea win | 28.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.3% | |
| Loss | 47.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.1% |
| 1-0 | 12.7% | |
| 2-0 | 10.8% |
Guinea vs Eritrea stats
Guinea vs Eritrea head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Guinea vs Eritrea odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 76.4%, draw 17.5%, away 6.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.18 | 5.15 | 14.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
49 snapshots recorded, from .