Equatorial Guinea
vs
Zimbabwe
Garuda Lions Prediction: Equatorial Guinea
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Equatorial Guinea is the favourite, not a value bet.
Equatorial Guinea vs Zimbabwe overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Equatorial Guinea vs Zimbabwe
| Probability | Equatorial Guinea | Draw | Zimbabwe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.6% | 31.3% | 28.1% |
| Market | 45.9% | 28.5% | 25.6% |
| Final | 44.6% | 29.2% | 26.2% |
| Edge | -1.3% | +0.7% | +0.6% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.96, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -12.7% per unit staked (our 44.6% × 1.96 − 1).
Equatorial Guinea vs Zimbabwe match preview
In the upcoming Africa Cup of Nations qualification match, Equatorial Guinea holds a 45% probability of winning against Zimbabwe, who has a 26% chance of victory. The likelihood of a draw stands at 29%. Our model predicts a most probable scoreline of 1-0 in favor of Equatorial Guinea, with this outcome having a 12% likelihood. The expected goals for Equatorial Guinea is 1.23, while Zimbabwe is projected to score 0.98.
Recent form shows Equatorial Guinea with a record of one win and four losses in their last five matches, alongside one draw. Conversely, Zimbabwe has struggled as well, with one win, two losses, and two draws in their last five games. The confidence grade for this match is rated as C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Equatorial Guinea and Zimbabwe expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.22
Equatorial Guinea and Zimbabwe attack and defence ratings
Equatorial Guinea
Zimbabwe
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Group Stage - 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Equatorial Guinea vs Zimbabwe markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Equatorial Guinea | 44.6% | 2.24 | -1.3% | 1.96 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.8% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.3% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.8% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.4% | 1.68 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Equatorial Guinea | 44.6% |
| Draw | 29.2% | |
| Zimbabwe | 26.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 61.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.7% |
| No | 54.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Equatorial Guinea win | 18.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 59.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.5% |
| 0-0 | 12.2% | |
| 1-0 | 12.1% |
Equatorial Guinea vs Zimbabwe stats
Equatorial Guinea and Zimbabwe recent form
| Equatorial Guinea |
WLLLLD |
| Zimbabwe |
LWLDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Equatorial Guinea vs Zimbabwe head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Equatorial Guinea vs Zimbabwe odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 45.9%, draw 28.5%, away 25.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.96 | 3.16 | 3.51 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
49 snapshots recorded, from .