Ivory Coast
vs
Gambia
Garuda Lions Prediction: Ivory Coast
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.26 vs 1.52.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Ivory Coast is the favourite, not a value bet.
Ivory Coast vs Gambia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ivory Coast vs Gambia
| Probability | Ivory Coast | Draw | Gambia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.5% | 21.7% | 24.9% |
| Market | 80.6% | 13.9% | 5.5% |
| Final | 73.8% | 15.8% | 10.4% |
| Edge | -6.8% | +1.9% | +4.8% |
Why Ivory Coast
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.26 vs 1.52.
Best available price on the pick: 1.10, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -18.8% per unit staked (our 73.8% × 1.10 − 1).
Ivory Coast vs Gambia match preview
Ivory Coast enters the match against Gambia with a strong probability of winning at 74%. Their recent form shows three wins in their last six matches, while Gambia has also performed well, winning five of their last six. The expected goals suggest a dominant performance from Ivory Coast, with a forecast of 2.26 compared to Gambia's 1.52.
The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1, with a 9% likelihood. Additionally, there is a high probability of over 2.5 goals at 73% and both teams scoring at 71%. Historically, Ivory Coast has had the upper hand in their last two encounters, winning both without conceding.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ivory Coast and Gambia expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.77
Ivory Coast and Gambia attack and defence ratings
Ivory Coast
Gambia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Group Stage - 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ivory Coast vs Gambia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ivory Coast | 73.8% | 1.35 | -6.8% | 1.10 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.7% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.7% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.6% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.5% | 2.15 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ivory Coast | 73.8% |
| Draw | 15.8% | |
| Gambia | 10.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 27.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.7% |
| No | 29.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 84.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 26.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ivory Coast win | 33.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.0% | |
| Loss | 46.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.9% |
| 1-1 | 8.6% | |
| 2-2 | 6.7% |
Ivory Coast vs Gambia stats
Ivory Coast and Gambia recent form
| Ivory Coast |
WWLWLW |
| Gambia |
WWWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ivory Coast vs Gambia head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-24 | Ivory Coast | Gambia | World Cup - Qualification Africa | 1-0 |
| 2023-11-20 | Gambia | Ivory Coast | World Cup - Qualification Africa | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ivory Coast vs Gambia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 80.6%, draw 13.9%, away 5.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.10 | 6.39 | 16.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
49 snapshots recorded, from .