Benin
vs
Central African Republic
Garuda Lions Prediction: Benin
2 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.95 vs 0.95.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Benin is the favourite, not a value bet.
Benin vs Central African Republic overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Benin vs Central African Republic
| Probability | Benin | Draw | Central African Republic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.7% | 23.5% | 16.8% |
| Market | 63.5% | 24.4% | 12.1% |
| Final | 62.5% | 24.2% | 13.3% |
| Edge | -1.0% | -0.2% | +1.2% |
Why Benin
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.95 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.42, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.2% per unit staked (our 62.5% × 1.42 − 1).
Benin vs Central African Republic match preview
In the upcoming Africa Cup of Nations qualification match, Benin is favored with a 63% probability of winning against the Central African Republic, who have a 13% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, occurring with a 10% likelihood. Benin's expected goals stand at 1.95, while Central African Republic's is at 0.95, indicating a significant disparity in offensive output.
Recent form shows Benin with mixed results: a win, a draw, and two losses in their last five matches. In contrast, the Central African Republic has struggled, recording six games with only one win. Additionally, there is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% probability that both teams will score, suggesting a potentially dynamic match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Benin and Central African Republic expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.91
Benin and Central African Republic attack and defence ratings
Benin
Central African Republic
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Group Stage - 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Benin vs Central African Republic markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Benin | 62.5% | 1.60 | -1.0% | 1.42 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.7% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.7% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.3% | 2.48 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Benin | 62.5% |
| Draw | 24.2% | |
| Central African Republic | 13.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.7% |
| No | 46.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 37.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Benin win | 36.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.2% | |
| Loss | 40.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.2% |
| 2-0 | 10.4% | |
| 2-1 | 9.9% |
Benin vs Central African Republic stats
Benin and Central African Republic recent form
| Benin |
WDLLWL |
| Central African Republic |
LLWLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Benin vs Central African Republic head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Benin vs Central African Republic odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 63.5%, draw 24.4%, away 12.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.42 | 3.70 | 7.42 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
49 snapshots recorded, from .