Ghana
vs
Somalia
Garuda Lions Prediction: Ghana
1 – 0 Predicted score · 18% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 0.46.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Ghana is the favourite, not a value bet.
Ghana vs Somalia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ghana vs Somalia
| Probability | Ghana | Draw | Somalia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69.8% | 22.5% | 7.8% |
| Market | 84.1% | 10.7% | 5.1% |
| Final | 80.5% | 13.7% | 5.8% |
| Edge | -3.6% | +2.9% | +0.7% |
Why Ghana
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 0.46.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.04, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -16.2% per unit staked (our 80.5% × 1.04 − 1).
Ghana vs Somalia match preview
Ghana faces Somalia in the Africa Cup of Nations qualification match on November 11, 2026, with a strong probability of winning at 81%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, which has an 18% chance of occurring. Ghana's expected goals stand at 1.82, while Somalia's are significantly lower at 0.46, indicating a potential disparity in offensive capabilities.
Both teams are struggling with recent form, as Ghana has recorded four losses and one draw in their last six matches, while Somalia has also faced difficulties with one draw and five losses in the same period. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 40%, and there is a 32% chance that both teams will score during the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ghana and Somalia expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.28
Ghana and Somalia attack and defence ratings
Ghana
Somalia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Group Stage - 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ghana vs Somalia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ghana | 80.5% | 1.24 | -3.6% | 1.04 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.1% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 68.2% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 94.2% | 1.06 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Ghana win | 43.1% | 2.32 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ghana | 80.5% |
| Draw | 13.7% | |
| Somalia | 5.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 31.8% |
| No | 68.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 94.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 86.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 19.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ghana win | 43.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.7% | |
| Loss | 30.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 17.7% |
| 2-0 | 16.9% | |
| 0-0 | 11.1% |
Ghana vs Somalia stats
Ghana vs Somalia head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Ghana vs Somalia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 84.1%, draw 10.7%, away 5.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.04 | 8.15 | 17.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
48 snapshots recorded, from .