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Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification · Full time ·Group Stage - 2

Ghana vs Gambia

2 – 4 Full time

27′Ernest Nuamah
33′Felix Ohene Afena-Gyan
36′Yaya Bojang
36′Kojo Peprah Oppong
37′Muhammed Badammosi
42′Omar Colley
43′Carlos Manuel Brito Leal Queiróz
45′Brandon Thomas-AsanteBenjamin Tetteh
45′Kwasi SiboIbrahim Sulemana
59′Abdoulie SanyangEbrima Colley
63′Benjamin Tetteh
64′Ebou Adams
68′Ebrima Colley
69′Ebrima Colley
74′Suleiman CamaraSainey Sanyang
74′Abubakr BarryMouhamadou Drammeh
74′Kojo Peprah OppongAugustine Boakye
80′Muhammed BadammosiAdama Bojang
85′Ernest NuamahChristopher Bonsu Baah
90′Ebrima Colley

Accra Sports Stadium, AccraReferee: Mustapha Kechaf

Ghana 58%
Draw 24%
Gambia 18%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

13 Shots 8
4 Shots on target 5
74 Possession % 26
12 Corners 2
10 Fouls 20
1 Offsides 0
1 Saves 2
435 Accurate passes 130

Ghana vs Gambia overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Ghana vs Gambia

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityGhanaDrawGambia
Model46.3%24.6%29.1%
Market62.5%23.4%14.0%
Final58.5%23.7%17.8%
Edge-16.2%+1.2%+15.0%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Ghana ↓ / Gambia → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 11% 8% 2 6% 9% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 84%
3+ goals 62%
No goals 5%

Ghana and Gambia expected goals

Ghana 1.70
Gambia 1.52

Total expected goals: 3.22

Ghana and Gambia attack and defence ratings

Ghana

Attack 1.05 +5%
Defence 0.74 -26%

Gambia

Attack 1.82 +82%
Defence 1.19 +19%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Ghana vs Gambia: result vs prediction

Ghana 2 – 4 Gambia

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Group Stage - 2 fixtures

Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

Before and after this match

Ghana vs Gambia markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Ghana 58.5% 1.71 -16.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 63.7% 1.57 — —
Both teams to score Yes 65.2% 1.53 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 82.2% 1.22 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 58.8% 1.70 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Ghana58.5%
Draw23.7%
Gambia17.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.563.7%
Under 2.536.3%
Both teams to scoreYes65.2%
No34.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)82.2%
12 (either side)76.3%
X2 (draw or away)41.5%
Handicap -1Ghana win22.0%
Push (exactly one goal)19.3%
Loss58.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.9%
2-19.2%
1-27.1%

Ghana vs Gambia stats

Ghana and Gambia recent form

newest first
Ghana LLLDWW
Gambia WWLWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Ghana vs Gambia head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Ghana vs Gambia odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 62.5%, draw 23.4%, away 14.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.47 4.00 6.69
Bet365 1.48 3.80 6.25
BetVictor 1.45 3.90 6.50
Betano 1.52 4.25 7.50
Betfair 1.44 3.90 6.50
Marathonbet 1.46 4.00 6.60
Pinnacle 1.46 3.90 7.07
SBO 1.40 3.53 5.42
William Hill 1.44 3.60 6.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.46 —
X 3.90 —
2 6.50 ▼ -0.03

2 snapshots recorded, from .