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Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification · Full time ·Group Stage - 1

Gambia vs Somalia

2 – 1 Full time

18′Ebrima Colley
22′Abdulsamed Abdullahi
34′Abubakr Barry
35′Abdi SabriyeI. Abatari
45′Yaya BojangMuhammed Badammosi
45′Alieu FaderaSuleiman Camara
69′Abubakr BarryEbou Adams
69′Ebrima ColleyAbdoulie Sanyang
72′Bilal Njie
77′Abdoulie CeesayAdama Bojang
78′Sakariya HassanIlyas Akram
83′Muhammed Badammosi
85′Abdi SharifMohamed Ahmed Osman
85′Bilal NjieM. Suleiman
90′A. Abdullahi

Independence Stadium, BakauReferee: Andofetra Rakotojaona

Gambia 83%
Draw 13%
Somalia 4%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

11 Shots 6
4 Shots on target 1
61 Possession % 39
1 Corners 3
16 Fouls 13
2 Offsides 2
0 Saves 2
367 Accurate passes 262

Gambia vs Somalia overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Gambia vs Somalia

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityGambiaDrawSomalia
Model83.1%12.4%4.4%
Market82.8%12.8%4.4%
Final82.9%12.7%4.4%
Edge+0.3%-0.3%+0.0%

Confidence: Low

Why Gambia

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.85 vs 0.57.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Gambia ↓ / Somalia → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 2 13% 3 13% 4+ 18% 10%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 86%
3+ goals 66%
No goals 4%

Gambia and Somalia expected goals

Gambia 2.85
Somalia 0.57

Total expected goals: 3.42

Gambia and Somalia attack and defence ratings

Gambia

Attack 1.94 +94%
Defence 1.28 +28%

Somalia

Attack 0.40 -60%
Defence 1.18 +18%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Gambia vs Somalia: result vs prediction

Gambia 2 – 1 Somalia

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Group Stage - 1 fixtures

Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

Before and after this match

Gambia vs Somalia markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Gambia 82.9% 1.21 +0.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 65.7% 1.52 — —
Both teams to score No 58.9% 1.70 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 95.6% 1.05 — —
Handicap -1 Gambia win 64.7% 1.55 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Gambia82.9%
Draw12.7%
Somalia4.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.565.7%
Under 2.534.3%
Both teams to scoreYes41.1%
No58.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)95.6%
12 (either side)87.3%
X2 (draw or away)17.1%
Handicap -1Gambia win64.7%
Push (exactly one goal)18.7%
Loss16.6%
Correct score (top 3)2-013.5%
3-012.7%
1-09.0%

Gambia vs Somalia stats

Gambia and Somalia recent form

newest first
Gambia WLWWLD
Somalia DDLLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Gambia vs Somalia head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Gambia vs Somalia odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 82.8%, draw 12.8%, away 4.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.09 7.90 22.00
Bet365 1.11 7.00 21.00
BetVictor 1.09 7.50 22.00
Betano 1.11 7.40 23.00
Betfair 1.13 6.50 13.00
Marathonbet 1.09 7.90 22.00
Pinnacle 1.12 7.20 19.63
SBO 1.08 6.28 14.92
William Hill 1.12 7.00 21.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.11 ▼ -0.11
X 7.20 ▲ +1.85
2 21.00 ▲ +10.15

7 snapshots recorded, from .