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Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification · Full time ·Group Stage - 2

Guinea vs Kenya

1 – 0 Full time

16′mohammed bajaber
32′Serhou Guirassy
45′Micah ObieroTimothy Ouma
45′Job OchiengRambok Ryan Wesley Ogam
45′Aboubacar KeitaMory Konate
60′Aliou BaldeAguibou Camara
60′mohammed bajaberShariff Sirengo
60′Seydouba CisseIbrahima Sory Bangoura
64′Mohamed Camara
74′Ben Stanley OmondiJavan Omondi Ochieng
76′Abdoul Karim TraoréOusmane Camara
83′Yadaly DiabyLamine Diaby Fadiga
87′C. EramboAmos Wanjala

Stade 28 Septembre, Conakry

Guinea 51%
Draw 28%
Kenya 20%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

9 Shots 5
3 Shots on target 2
51 Possession % 49
5 Corners 2
10 Fouls 17
3 Offsides 1
2 Saves 2
288 Accurate passes 268

Guinea vs Kenya overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Guinea vs Kenya

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityGuineaDrawKenya
Model37.1%28.8%34.1%
Market56.2%28.0%15.8%
Final51.4%28.2%20.4%
Edge-19.0%+0.8%+18.2%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Guinea ↓ / Kenya → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 8% 1 9% 14% 8% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 75%
3+ goals 48%
No goals 9%

Guinea and Kenya expected goals

Guinea 1.34
Kenya 1.27

Total expected goals: 2.61

Guinea and Kenya attack and defence ratings

Guinea

Attack 0.90 -10%
Defence 0.94 -6%

Kenya

Attack 1.14 +14%
Defence 1.11 +11%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Guinea vs Kenya: result vs prediction

Guinea 1 – 0 Kenya

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Group Stage - 2 fixtures

Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

Before and after this match

Guinea vs Kenya markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Guinea 51.4% 1.95 -19.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 51.5% 1.94 — —
Both teams to score Yes 54.4% 1.84 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 79.6% 1.26 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 62.9% 1.59 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Guinea51.4%
Draw28.2%
Kenya20.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.548.5%
Under 2.551.5%
Both teams to scoreYes54.4%
No45.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)79.6%
12 (either side)71.8%
X2 (draw or away)48.6%
Handicap -1Guinea win17.4%
Push (exactly one goal)19.7%
Loss62.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.8%
0-08.6%
1-08.6%

Guinea vs Kenya stats

Guinea and Kenya recent form

newest first
Guinea LDWDWL
Kenya DLWWLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Guinea vs Kenya head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Guinea vs Kenya odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 56.2%, draw 28.0%, away 15.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.63 3.34 6.01
Bet365 1.57 3.60 5.00
BetVictor 1.62 3.25 6.00
Betano 1.70 3.25 5.50
Betfair 1.60 3.25 6.00
Marathonbet 1.65 3.26 5.75
Pinnacle 1.60 3.37 6.20
SBO 1.60 3.04 5.03
William Hill 1.65 3.10 5.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.62 ▼ -0.10
X 3.25 ▲ +0.22
2 5.75 ▲ +0.25

3 snapshots recorded, from .