South Africa
vs
Guinea
2 – 1 Full time
| 30′ | Ime Okon | ||
| 40′ | Serhou Guirassy | ||
| 44′ | Ime Okon | ||
| 45′ | Lass KouroumaOusmane Diabate | ||
| 57′ | Aubrey ModibaSamukele Kabini | ||
| 63′ | ibrahima fofana brezeIbrahim Diakite | ||
| 63′ | Ilaix MoribaLamine Diaby Fadiga | ||
| 67′ | Thapelo Maseko | ||
| 68′ | Iqraam RaynersYanela Mbuthuma | ||
| 69′ | Seydouba Cisse | ||
| 75′ | Abdoul Karim TraoréAguibou Camara | ||
| 77′ | Samukele Kabini | ||
| 82′ | Oswin AppollisThapelo Morena | ||
| 82′ | Relebohile MofokengBathusi Aubaas | ||
| 82′ | Thapelo MasekoLuther Singh | ||
| 85′ | Seydouba CisseOusmane Camara |
Match stats
| 22 | Shots | 11 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 56 | Possession % | 44 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 1 | Saves | 3 |
| 378 | Accurate passes | 290 |
South Africa vs Guinea overview
Garuda Lions analysis: South Africa vs Guinea
| Probability | South Africa | Draw | Guinea |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.9% | 32.1% | 22.0% |
| Market | 50.4% | 29.4% | 20.3% |
| Final | 49.2% | 30.1% | 20.7% |
| Edge | -4.4% | +2.7% | +1.7% |
Why South Africa
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.24 vs 0.78.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
South Africa and Guinea expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.02
South Africa and Guinea attack and defence ratings
South Africa
Guinea
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
South Africa vs Guinea: result vs prediction
South Africa 2 – 1 Guinea
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Group Stage - 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
South Africa vs Guinea markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | South Africa | 49.2% | 2.03 | -4.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 67.2% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.4% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.3% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | South Africa | 49.2% |
| Draw | 30.1% | |
| Guinea | 20.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 67.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.6% |
| No | 60.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | South Africa win | 21.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.6% | |
| Loss | 54.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.2% |
| 0-0 | 14.6% | |
| 1-1 | 14.1% |
South Africa vs Guinea stats
South Africa and Guinea recent form
| South Africa |
LWDLLW |
| Guinea |
DWDWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
South Africa vs Guinea head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-11 | South Africa | Guinea | African Nations Championship | 2-1 |
| 2022-03-25 | South Africa | Guinea | Friendlies | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
South Africa vs Guinea odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 50.2%, draw 29.5%, away 20.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.81 | 3.18 | 4.71 |
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 3.10 | 4.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.83 | 3.10 | 4.50 |
| Betano | 1.93 | 3.05 | 4.30 |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 3.10 | 4.33 |
| Marathonbet | 1.79 | 3.18 | 4.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.85 | 3.02 | 4.78 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 2.90 | 4.33 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .