South Africa
vs
Kenya
Garuda Lions Prediction: South Africa
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 0.92.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
South Africa vs Kenya overview
Garuda Lions analysis: South Africa vs Kenya
| Probability | South Africa | Draw | Kenya |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.1% | 25.6% | 18.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 56.1% | 25.6% | 18.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why South Africa
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 0.92.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
South Africa vs Kenya match preview
In the upcoming Africa Cup of Nations qualification match, South Africa is favored with a 56% probability of winning against Kenya, who has an 18% chance of securing a victory. The model suggests a likely scoreline of 1-0 in favor of South Africa, with this outcome having an 11% probability. The expected goals for South Africa stand at 1.76, while Kenya is projected to score 0.92.
Recent form indicates that South Africa has experienced a mixed run with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. In contrast, Kenya's recent performances show one win, one draw, and three losses. Both teams have a 50% probability of the match featuring over 2.5 goals, and there is a 51% chance that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
South Africa and Kenya expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.67
South Africa and Kenya attack and defence ratings
South Africa
Kenya
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Group Stage - 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
South Africa vs Kenya markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | South Africa | 56.1% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.1% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.7% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.9% | 2.28 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | South Africa | 56.1% |
| Draw | 25.6% | |
| Kenya | 18.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.7% |
| No | 49.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | South Africa win | 32.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.8% | |
| Loss | 43.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.2% |
| 1-0 | 11.0% | |
| 2-0 | 10.7% |
South Africa vs Kenya stats
South Africa and Kenya recent form
| South Africa |
WWLWDL |
| Kenya |
LDLWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.