Guinea-Bissau
vs
Nigeria
3 – 0 Full time
| 15′ | Franculino Gluda Dju | ||
| 45′ | Frank OnyekaMoses Usor | ||
| 45′ | Taiwo AwoniyiMoses Simon | ||
| 61′ | Renato NhagaManadi Camara | ||
| 66′ | Mama Baldé | ||
| 68′ | Ademola LookmanTolu Arokodare | ||
| 71′ | Ronaldo VieiraAlfa Semedo | ||
| 71′ | Mama BaldéMauro Rodrigues | ||
| 75′ | Opa Sangante | ||
| 76′ | Akor AdamsGeorge Ilenikhena | ||
| 76′ | Wilfred NdidiRaphael Onyedika Nwadike | ||
| 79′ | BetoAlvaro Djalo Dias Fernandes | ||
| 79′ | Franculino Gluda DjuTamble Ulisses Folgado Monteiro | ||
| 88′ | Alfa Semedo | ||
| 90′ | Calvin Bassey | ||
| 90′ | Alvaro Djalo Dias Fernandes |
Match stats
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 45 | Possession % | 55 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Offsides | 2 |
| 5 | Saves | 4 |
| 239 | Accurate passes | 311 |
Guinea-Bissau vs Nigeria overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Guinea-Bissau vs Nigeria
| Probability | Guinea-Bissau | Draw | Nigeria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18.2% | 31.9% | 49.9% |
| Market | 13.2% | 24.8% | 62.1% |
| Final | 14.4% | 26.5% | 59.0% |
| Edge | +5.0% | +7.2% | -12.2% |
Why Nigeria
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.34 vs 0.62.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Guinea-Bissau and Nigeria expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.96
Guinea-Bissau and Nigeria attack and defence ratings
Guinea-Bissau
Nigeria
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Guinea-Bissau vs Nigeria: result vs prediction
Guinea-Bissau 3 – 0 Nigeria
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Group Stage - 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Guinea-Bissau vs Nigeria markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nigeria | 59.0% | 1.69 | -12.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 69.5% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 64.0% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 85.6% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.8% | 2.14 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Guinea-Bissau | 14.4% |
| Draw | 26.5% | |
| Nigeria | 59.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 30.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 69.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36.0% |
| No | 64.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 41.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 85.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Nigeria win | 26.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.8% | |
| Loss | 46.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 17.2% |
| 0-0 | 15.7% | |
| 1-1 | 13.4% |
Guinea-Bissau vs Nigeria stats
Guinea-Bissau and Nigeria recent form
| Guinea-Bissau |
WLLWDL |
| Nigeria |
WDDWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Guinea-Bissau vs Nigeria head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-22 | Guinea-Bissau | Nigeria | Africa Cup of Nations | 0-1 |
| 2023-03-27 | Guinea-Bissau | Nigeria | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification | 0-1 |
| 2023-03-24 | Nigeria | Guinea-Bissau | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification | 0-1 |
| 2022-01-19 | Guinea-Bissau | Nigeria | Africa Cup of Nations | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Guinea-Bissau vs Nigeria odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 13.2%, draw 24.8%, away 62.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 7.01 | 3.76 | 1.49 |
| Bet365 | 6.50 | 3.60 | 1.48 |
| BetVictor | 7.50 | 3.70 | 1.45 |
| Betano | 8.00 | 3.95 | 1.55 |
| Betfair | 7.00 | 3.75 | 1.44 |
| Marathonbet | 6.90 | 3.76 | 1.48 |
| Pinnacle | 7.18 | 3.50 | 1.53 |
| William Hill | 6.50 | 3.40 | 1.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .