Nigeria
vs
Madagascar
2 – 1 Full time
| 16′ | Ehsan Kari | ||
| 36′ | Geordan Dupire | ||
| 45′ | George Ilenikhena | ||
| 57′ | Ademola Lookman | ||
| 61′ | Akor AdamsMoses Simon | ||
| 61′ | Samuel ChukwuezeMoses Usor | ||
| 65′ | Moses Usor | ||
| 67′ | El Hadari RaheriniainaWarren Caddy | ||
| 69′ | George IlenikhenaTaiwo Awoniyi | ||
| 69′ | Ademola LookmanTolu Arokodare | ||
| 70′ | C. CouturierRijaniaina Nicolas Randriamanampisoa | ||
| 70′ | Ryan PontiNicolas Paul Julien Fontaine | ||
| 84′ | Marco IlaimaharitraLoic Lapoussin | ||
| 84′ | Hakim AbdallahRoman Ferber | ||
| 87′ | Ola AinaBright Osayi-Samuel | ||
| 90′ | Nicolas Paul Julien Fontaine |
Match stats
| 22 | Shots | 4 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 55 | Possession % | 45 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Offsides | 1 |
| 0 | Saves | 2 |
| 404 | Accurate passes | 327 |
Nigeria vs Madagascar overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nigeria vs Madagascar
| Probability | Nigeria | Draw | Madagascar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65.9% | 21.7% | 12.4% |
| Market | 78.0% | 15.9% | 6.1% |
| Final | 75.0% | 17.3% | 7.7% |
| Edge | -12.2% | +5.8% | +6.4% |
Why Nigeria
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.08 vs 0.81.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nigeria and Madagascar expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.89
Nigeria and Madagascar attack and defence ratings
Nigeria
Madagascar
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Nigeria vs Madagascar: result vs prediction
Nigeria 2 – 1 Madagascar
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Group Stage - 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Nigeria vs Madagascar markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nigeria | 75.0% | 1.33 | -12.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.3% | 1.08 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Nigeria win | 42.4% | 2.36 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nigeria | 75.0% |
| Draw | 17.3% | |
| Madagascar | 7.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.8% |
| No | 51.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 82.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 25.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Nigeria win | 42.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.5% | |
| Loss | 34.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.2% |
| 1-0 | 10.9% | |
| 1-1 | 10.4% |
Nigeria vs Madagascar stats
Nigeria and Madagascar recent form
| Nigeria |
DDWWWW |
| Madagascar |
LWWWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nigeria vs Madagascar head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-06-30 | Madagascar | Nigeria | Africa Cup of Nations | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Nigeria vs Madagascar odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 78.0%, draw 15.9%, away 6.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.17 | 6.25 | 14.90 |
| Bet365 | 1.17 | 5.75 | 15.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.17 | 5.75 | 15.00 |
| Betano | 1.23 | 6.60 | 16.50 |
| Betfair | 1.22 | 4.75 | 12.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.16 | 6.25 | 15.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.19 | 5.84 | 14.57 |
| SBO | 1.15 | 5.22 | 10.12 |
| William Hill | 1.18 | 5.50 | 15.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .