Mozambique
vs
Ethiopia
Garuda Lions Prediction: Mozambique
1 – 0 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Mozambique vs Ethiopia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mozambique vs Ethiopia
| Probability | Mozambique | Draw | Ethiopia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.9% | 29.2% | 31.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 38.9% | 29.2% | 31.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Mozambique vs Ethiopia match preview
Mozambique faces Ethiopia in the Africa Cup of Nations qualification match on November 11, 2026. According to our model, Mozambique has a 39% chance of winning, while Ethiopia's probability stands at 32%, with a 29% likelihood of a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Mozambique, occurring at a rate of 9%. The expected goals for Mozambique is 1.34, compared to Ethiopia's 1.20.
In terms of recent form, Mozambique has recorded one win, one draw, and four losses in their last six matches, while Ethiopia has two wins and four losses in the same period. Our model indicates a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% probability that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mozambique and Ethiopia expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.54
Mozambique and Ethiopia attack and defence ratings
Mozambique
Ethiopia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Group Stage - 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mozambique vs Ethiopia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mozambique | 38.9% | 2.57 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.8% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.8% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.1% | 1.64 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mozambique | 38.9% |
| Draw | 29.2% | |
| Ethiopia | 31.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.8% |
| No | 47.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mozambique win | 18.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.5% | |
| Loss | 61.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.9% |
| 1-0 | 9.3% | |
| 0-0 | 9.2% |
Mozambique vs Ethiopia stats
Mozambique and Ethiopia recent form
| Mozambique |
WDLLWL |
| Ethiopia |
LLWWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.