Garuda Lions
Today
Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification · Full time ·Group Stage - 2

Zambia vs Togo

2 – 0 Full time

2′A. Kangwanda
45′Mathews Banda
45′Abdoul Sabourh Bode
45′samsondin ouroKodjo Jean Claude
45′Obino ChisalaJoseph Liteta
56′Miguel Changa ChaiwaOwen Tembo
57′Abdoul Sabourh BodeAtte youssifou
64′David SimukondaLameck Banda
64′Loic·BessileLaba Kodjo
72′Kingstone MutandwaEliya Mandanji
73′Fashion SakalaGhampani Lungu
74′Charles AbiZuberu Sharani
76′Patrice Neveu
90′Owen Tembo
90′Eliya Mandanji

Levy Mwanawasa Stadium, NdolaReferee: Ali Mahmood Mahmood Ismail

Zambia 43%
Draw 32%
Togo 25%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

11 Shots 12
4 Shots on target 1
39 Possession % 61
7 Corners 5
17 Fouls 12
1 Offsides 0
1 Saves 2
153 Accurate passes 280

Zambia vs Togo overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Zambia vs Togo

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityZambiaDrawTogo
Model30.3%38.2%31.4%
Market46.8%30.2%23.0%
Final42.7%32.2%25.1%
Edge-16.4%+8.0%+8.5%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Zambia ↓ / Togo → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 22% 16% 1 14% 14% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 78%
2+ goals 48%
3+ goals 21%
No goals 22%

Zambia and Togo expected goals

Zambia 0.72
Togo 0.85

Total expected goals: 1.57

Zambia and Togo attack and defence ratings

Zambia

Attack 0.72 -28%
Defence 1.21 +21%

Togo

Attack 0.62 -38%
Defence 0.73 -27%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Zambia vs Togo: result vs prediction

Zambia 2 – 0 Togo

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Group Stage - 2 fixtures

Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

Before and after this match

Zambia vs Togo markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Zambia 42.7% 2.34 -16.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 79.0% 1.27 — —
Both teams to score No 69.0% 1.45 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 74.9% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 72.7% 1.38 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Zambia42.7%
Draw32.2%
Togo25.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.521.0%
Under 2.579.0%
Both teams to scoreYes31.0%
No69.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)74.9%
12 (either side)67.8%
X2 (draw or away)57.3%
Handicap -1Zambia win8.5%
Push (exactly one goal)18.9%
Loss72.7%
Correct score (top 3)0-022.0%
0-115.2%
1-014.8%

Zambia vs Togo stats

Zambia and Togo recent form

newest first
Zambia LLDDLW
Togo WDLWLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Zambia vs Togo head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Zambia vs Togo odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 46.8%, draw 30.2%, away 23.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.96 3.12 4.00
Bet365 1.91 3.25 3.90
BetVictor 1.93 3.00 4.10
Betano 2.02 3.00 3.95
Betfair 1.91 3.00 3.90
Marathonbet 1.94 3.12 3.98
Pinnacle 1.94 3.13 4.11
SBO 1.92 2.74 3.41
William Hill 1.95 2.90 3.90

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.94 ▲ +0.01
X 3.00 ▼ -0.04
2 3.95 —

2 snapshots recorded, from .