Zambia
vs
Burundi
Garuda Lions Prediction: Burundi
0 – 1 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 1.00.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Zambia vs Burundi overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Zambia vs Burundi
| Probability | Zambia | Draw | Burundi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23.9% | 28.3% | 47.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 23.9% | 28.3% | 47.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Burundi
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 1.00.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Zambia vs Burundi match preview
Zambia faces Burundi in the Africa Cup of Nations qualification match on November 11, 2026. According to our model, Zambia has a 24% chance of winning, while Burundi is favored with a 48% probability. The most likely scoreline is 0-1 in favor of Burundi, occurring at an 11% likelihood. Expected goals suggest Zambia will score 1.00, while Burundi is projected to net 1.51.
In terms of recent form, Zambia's last six matches show a record of one win, two losses, and three draws, while Burundi has a more varied performance with two wins, three losses, and one draw. The probability of over 2.5 goals is at 46%, and both teams scoring stands at 51%, indicating a potentially competitive matchup. The confidence grade for this analysis is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Zambia and Burundi expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.51
Zambia and Burundi attack and defence ratings
Zambia
Burundi
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Group Stage - 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Zambia vs Burundi markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Burundi | 47.8% | 2.09 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.0% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.6% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 76.1% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.2% | 1.91 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Zambia | 23.9% |
| Draw | 28.3% | |
| Burundi | 47.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.6% |
| No | 49.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 52.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 76.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Burundi win | 24.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.9% | |
| Loss | 52.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 0-1 | 11.0% | |
| 0-0 | 9.3% |