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Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification · Full time ·Group Stage - 1

Togo vs Burundi

1 – 0 Full time

17′Dermane Karim
45′S. NtibazonkizaBienvenue Kanakimana
55′Komlavi KomiSadik Fofana
56′Kevin Boma
61′Bonfils-Caleb BimenyimanaAsman ndikumana
73′Kodjo Jean Claudesamsondin ouro
73′Kevin DenkeyLaba Kodjo
75′Christophe Nduwarugira
76′Mokono Elie EldhinoCedric Amissi
76′Abdoul Karim MpawenimanaH. Msanga
80′Zuberu Sharani
83′J. GirumugishaMohamed Amissi
85′Zuberu SharaniLoic·Bessile
90′Youssouf Ndayishimiye

Stade de Kegue, LomeReferee: Celso Alvação

Togo 48%
Draw 28%
Burundi 24%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

13 Shots 16
3 Shots on target 5
52 Possession % 48
9 Corners 6
22 Fouls 20
2 Offsides 2
5 Saves 2
254 Accurate passes 233

Togo vs Burundi overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Togo vs Burundi

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityTogoDrawBurundi
Model17.8%32.2%50.0%
Market58.5%26.2%15.2%
Final48.3%27.7%23.9%
Edge-40.8%+6.0%+34.8%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Togo ↓ / Burundi → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 16% 18% 12% 1 13% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 84%
2+ goals 58%
3+ goals 30%
No goals 16%

Togo and Burundi expected goals

Togo 0.64
Burundi 1.28

Total expected goals: 1.92

Togo and Burundi attack and defence ratings

Togo

Attack 0.60 -40%
Defence 0.83 -17%

Burundi

Attack 1.37 +37%
Defence 0.86 -14%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Togo vs Burundi: result vs prediction

Togo 1 – 0 Burundi

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Group Stage - 1 fixtures

Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

Before and after this match

Togo vs Burundi markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Togo 48.3% 2.07 -40.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 70.6% 1.42 — —
Both teams to score No 65.1% 1.54 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 76.1% 1.31 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 82.7% 1.21 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Togo48.3%
Draw27.7%
Burundi23.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.529.4%
Under 2.570.6%
Both teams to scoreYes34.9%
No65.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)76.1%
12 (either side)72.3%
X2 (draw or away)51.7%
Handicap -1Togo win4.8%
Push (exactly one goal)12.5%
Loss82.7%
Correct score (top 3)0-117.7%
0-016.3%
1-113.3%

Togo vs Burundi stats

Togo and Burundi recent form

newest first
Togo DLWLLD
Burundi WWLLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Togo vs Burundi head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Togo vs Burundi odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 58.5%, draw 26.2%, away 15.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.58 3.62 5.85
Bet365 1.55 3.30 6.00
BetVictor 1.55 3.50 6.00
Betano 1.57 3.50 6.30
Betfair 1.65 3.40 5.00
Marathonbet 1.56 3.62 5.90
Pinnacle 1.57 3.48 6.42
SBO 1.54 3.28 5.13
William Hill 1.55 3.30 6.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.56 ▼ -0.01
X 3.48 ▼ -0.02
2 6.00 ▲ +0.50

5 snapshots recorded, from .