Algeria
vs
Togo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Algeria
1 – 0 Predicted score · 16% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.40 vs 0.71.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Algeria is the favourite, not a value bet.
Algeria vs Togo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Algeria vs Togo
| Probability | Algeria | Draw | Togo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.3% | 29.9% | 17.8% |
| Market | 77.0% | 16.5% | 6.4% |
| Final | 70.8% | 19.9% | 9.3% |
| Edge | -6.2% | +3.3% | +2.8% |
Why Algeria
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.40 vs 0.71.
Best available price on the pick: 1.17, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -17.1% per unit staked (our 70.8% × 1.17 − 1).
Algeria vs Togo match preview
Algeria is set to face Togo in the Africa Cup of Nations qualification match on November 11, 2026. According to our model, Algeria holds a strong probability of 71% to win, while Togo has a 9% chance of victory, and a draw stands at 20%. The expected goals for Algeria are 1.40, compared to Togo's 0.71, indicating a significant advantage for the home side.
In terms of recent form, Algeria has recorded a mixed set of results with a record of D-W-L-D-W-L, whereas Togo has struggled, posting L-W-D-L-W-L. The most likely scoreline projected by our model is 1-0, occurring 16% of the time. Additionally, there is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals, and both teams scoring is estimated at 40%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Algeria and Togo expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.11
Algeria and Togo attack and defence ratings
Algeria
Togo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Group Stage - 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Algeria vs Togo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Algeria | 70.8% | 1.41 | -6.2% | 1.17 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.6% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.4% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.7% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.7% | 2.09 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Algeria | 70.8% |
| Draw | 19.9% | |
| Togo | 9.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.6% |
| No | 60.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 29.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Algeria win | 26.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.7% | |
| Loss | 47.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.7% |
| 0-0 | 13.3% | |
| 1-1 | 13.3% |
Algeria vs Togo stats
Algeria vs Togo head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Algeria vs Togo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 77.0%, draw 16.5%, away 6.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.17 | 5.45 | 14.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
49 snapshots recorded, from .