Mali
vs
Cape Verde Islands
3 – 1 Full time
| 5′ | Ange Martial Tia | ||
| 10′ | Sidny Lopes Cabral | ||
| 39′ | Nene Dorgeles | ||
| 47′ | Roberto Lopes | ||
| 51′ | Nene Dorgeles | ||
| 58′ | Kevin Pina | ||
| 61′ | Amadou HaidaraAliou Dieng | ||
| 61′ | Hamari TraoreDaouda Guindo | ||
| 67′ | Jamiro MonteiroTelmo Arcanjo | ||
| 67′ | Garry RodriguesJovane Cabral | ||
| 67′ | Gilson BenchimolNuno Da Costa | ||
| 71′ | Nene DorgelesGaoussou Kyassou Diarra | ||
| 71′ | Kamory DoumbiaLassana Coulibaly | ||
| 82′ | Aliou Dieng | ||
| 84′ | Deroy DuarteJosé Tavares | ||
| 85′ | Lassine SinayokoSekou Koita | ||
| 86′ | Ryan MendesAyoni Santos |
Match stats
| 16 | Shots | 4 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 55 | Possession % | 45 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Offsides | 0 |
| 1 | Saves | 4 |
| 450 | Accurate passes | 375 |
Mali vs Cape Verde Islands overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mali vs Cape Verde Islands
| Probability | Mali | Draw | Cape Verde Islands |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.7% | 33.1% | 28.2% |
| Market | 45.1% | 31.7% | 23.2% |
| Final | 43.5% | 32.0% | 24.5% |
| Edge | -6.4% | +1.4% | +5.0% |
Why Mali
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.19 vs 0.81.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mali and Cape Verde Islands expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.00
Mali and Cape Verde Islands attack and defence ratings
Mali
Cape Verde Islands
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Mali vs Cape Verde Islands: result vs prediction
Mali 3 – 1 Cape Verde Islands
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Group Stage - 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mali vs Cape Verde Islands markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mali | 43.5% | 2.30 | -6.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 67.0% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.5% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.5% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.7% | 1.76 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mali | 43.5% |
| Draw | 32.0% | |
| Cape Verde Islands | 24.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 67.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.5% |
| No | 58.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mali win | 19.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.9% | |
| Loss | 56.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.7% |
| 0-0 | 14.5% | |
| 1-0 | 13.3% |
Mali vs Cape Verde Islands stats
Mali and Cape Verde Islands recent form
| Mali |
LDDDDW |
| Cape Verde Islands |
LDDDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Mali vs Cape Verde Islands head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Mali vs Cape Verde Islands odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 45.0%, draw 32.0%, away 23.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.00 | 3.05 | 3.96 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 2.80 | 3.90 |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 2.90 | 3.80 |
| Betano | 2.05 | 2.92 | 4.00 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 2.70 | 3.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.97 | 3.05 | 3.98 |
| Pinnacle | 2.04 | 2.81 | 4.30 |
| SBO | 1.95 | 2.73 | 3.45 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 2.80 | 3.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .