Garuda Lions
Today
Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification · Full time ·Group Stage - 2

Liberia vs Mali

0 – 1 Full time

22′Mohammed Sangare
64′Edward LedlumP. Tarnue
64′Sylvanus NimelyPeter Wilson
75′Ousmane Camara
79′Ange Martial Tia
82′Ange Martial TiaSekou Koita
82′Kamory DoumbiaLassana Coulibaly
83′Nene DorgelesGaoussou Kyassou Diarra
83′Franklin·NyenetueSabastien Teclar
83′Nohan KennehDivine Teah
89′Lassine SinayokoModibo Sagnan
90′Ayouba KosiahEmmanuel Flomo
90′Mamadou SangareOusmane·Diakite
90′Sabastien Teclar

Samuel Kanyon Doe Sports Complex, MonroviaReferee: Mohamed Diraneh Guedi

Liberia 16%
Draw 25%
Mali 58%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

8 Shots 16
1 Shots on target 3
37 Possession % 63
3 Corners 8
13 Fouls 18
1 Offsides 2
2 Saves 1
225 Accurate passes 434

Liberia vs Mali overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Liberia vs Mali

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityLiberiaDrawMali
Model23.0%30.0%46.9%
Market14.0%24.0%62.0%
Final16.3%25.5%58.2%
Edge+9.0%+6.1%-15.1%

Confidence: Low

Why Mali

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.34 vs 0.90.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Liberia ↓ / Mali → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 12% 13% 10% 1 8% 14% 9% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 88%
2+ goals 67%
3+ goals 39%
No goals 12%

Liberia and Mali expected goals

Liberia 0.90
Mali 1.34

Total expected goals: 2.23

Liberia and Mali attack and defence ratings

Liberia

Attack 0.95 -5%
Defence 1.13 +13%

Mali

Attack 1.05 +5%
Defence 0.67 -33%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Liberia vs Mali: result vs prediction

Liberia 0 – 1 Mali

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Group Stage - 2 fixtures

Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

Before and after this match

Liberia vs Mali markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Mali 58.2% 1.72 -15.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 60.4% 1.66 — —
Both teams to score No 54.6% 1.83 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 83.7% 1.19 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 54.4% 1.84 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Liberia16.3%
Draw25.5%
Mali58.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.539.6%
Under 2.560.4%
Both teams to scoreYes45.4%
No54.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)41.8%
12 (either side)74.5%
X2 (draw or away)83.7%
Handicap -1Mali win22.1%
Push (exactly one goal)23.5%
Loss54.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.0%
0-113.0%
0-011.6%

Liberia vs Mali stats

Liberia and Mali recent form

newest first
Liberia LDWDLW
Mali WLDDDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Liberia vs Mali head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Liberia vs Mali odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 14.0%, draw 24.0%, away 62.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 6.96 3.84 1.48
Bet365 6.00 3.80 1.50
BetVictor 7.00 3.70 1.45
Betano 6.20 3.85 1.52
Betfair 6.50 3.80 1.44
Marathonbet 6.85 3.84 1.47
Pinnacle 7.11 3.67 1.51
SBO 5.70 3.42 1.40
William Hill 6.50 3.60 1.44

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 6.50 ▼ -0.50
X 3.80 ▼ -0.03
2 1.47 ▲ +0.02

3 snapshots recorded, from .