Mali
vs
Rwanda
Garuda Lions Prediction: Mali
1 – 0 Predicted score · 19% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.30 vs 0.57.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Mali vs Rwanda overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mali vs Rwanda
| Probability | Mali | Draw | Rwanda |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.6% | 31.3% | 15.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 53.6% | 31.3% | 15.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Mali
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.30 vs 0.57.
Mali vs Rwanda match preview
Mali is favored in their upcoming Africa Cup of Nations qualification match against Rwanda, with a 54% probability of victory according to our model. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-0, occurring at a 19% likelihood. Mali's expected goals stand at 1.30, while Rwanda's is significantly lower at 0.57. Recent form shows Mali with two wins and four matches without a loss, while Rwanda has a mixed record of three wins and three losses in their last six games.
Historically, Mali has dominated their head-to-head encounters, winning both of their last two meetings with Rwanda. The probability of a draw is 31%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 33%. However, the model indicates that there is a lower chance of over 2.5 goals, at just 29%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mali and Rwanda expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.87
Mali and Rwanda attack and defence ratings
Mali
Rwanda
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Group Stage - 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mali vs Rwanda markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mali | 53.6% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 71.1% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 67.2% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.9% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.4% | 2.15 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mali | 53.6% |
| Draw | 31.3% | |
| Rwanda | 15.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 28.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 71.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 32.8% |
| No | 67.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mali win | 26.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27.3% | |
| Loss | 46.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 18.9% |
| 0-0 | 16.5% | |
| 2-0 | 13.1% |
Mali vs Rwanda stats
Mali vs Rwanda head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-11-11 | Rwanda | Mali | World Cup - Qualification Africa | 0-3 |
| 2021-09-01 | Mali | Rwanda | World Cup - Qualification Africa | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.