Cape Verde Islands
vs
Liberia
Garuda Lions Prediction: Cape Verde Islands
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 1.10.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Cape Verde Islands vs Liberia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cape Verde Islands vs Liberia
| Probability | Cape Verde Islands | Draw | Liberia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.9% | 26.8% | 24.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 48.9% | 26.8% | 24.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Cape Verde Islands
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 1.10.
Cape Verde Islands vs Liberia match preview
Cape Verde Islands face Liberia in the Africa Cup of Nations qualification match on November 11, 2026. According to our model, Cape Verde Islands have a 49% probability of winning, while Liberia sits at 24%, and a draw is estimated at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Cape Verde Islands, with expected goals of 1.65 for Cape Verde Islands and 1.10 for Liberia.
Recent form shows Cape Verde Islands struggling with three consecutive losses followed by three draws, while Liberia has two losses, one win, and two draws in their last six matches. In their last two head-to-head encounters, Cape Verde Islands have won both matches against Liberia, indicating a favorable historical trend for the home side. Both teams are projected to score, with a 55% likelihood of both finding the net.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cape Verde Islands and Liberia expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.74
Cape Verde Islands and Liberia attack and defence ratings
Cape Verde Islands
Liberia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Group Stage - 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cape Verde Islands vs Liberia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cape Verde Islands | 48.9% | 2.04 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.7% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.0% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.7% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cape Verde Islands | 48.9% |
| Draw | 26.8% | |
| Liberia | 24.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.0% |
| No | 45.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cape Verde Islands win | 26.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 51.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 1-0 | 9.4% |
Cape Verde Islands vs Liberia stats
Cape Verde Islands and Liberia recent form
| Cape Verde Islands |
LLLDDD |
| Liberia |
LLDWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cape Verde Islands vs Liberia head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-10-10 | Cape Verde Islands | Liberia | World Cup - Qualification Africa | 1-0 |
| 2021-10-07 | Liberia | Cape Verde Islands | World Cup - Qualification Africa | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.