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Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification · Full time ·Group Stage - 1

Rwanda vs Liberia

3 – 1 Full time

2′Abeddy Biramahire
33′Leroy-Jacques Mickels
34′Bonheur Mugisha
38′Sylvanus Nimely
40′Jojea Kwizera
44′Joy Lance Mickels
45′Sylvanus NimelyKpah Sherman
45′P. TarnueAyouba Kosiah
45′Sabastien TeclarJimmy Farkarlun
48′Ayouba Kosiah
61′Kpah Sherman
69′Abeddy BiramahireI. Nshuti
69′Leroy-Jacques MickelsElie Tatou Iradukunda
75′Salomon TwehKindness Cole
75′Franklin·NyenetueDivine Teah
76′I. Nshuti
80′Claude Niyomugaboemmanuel imanishimwe
80′Jojea KwizeraGilbert Mugisha
80′Bonheur MugishaKevin Muhire

Amahoro Stadium, KigaliReferee: Hillary Hambaba

Rwanda 45%
Draw 29%
Liberia 25%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

12 Shots 17
4 Shots on target 5
48 Possession % 52
1 Corners 5
19 Fouls 8
3 Saves 1
328 Accurate passes 352

Rwanda vs Liberia overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Rwanda vs Liberia

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityRwandaDrawLiberia
Model22.1%34.7%43.1%
Market52.7%27.6%19.6%
Final45.1%29.4%25.5%
Edge-30.6%+7.1%+23.5%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Rwanda ↓ / Liberia → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 18% 17% 10% 1 10% 14% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 82%
2+ goals 55%
3+ goals 27%
No goals 18%

Rwanda and Liberia expected goals

Rwanda 0.70
Liberia 1.11

Total expected goals: 1.81

Rwanda and Liberia attack and defence ratings

Rwanda

Attack 0.52 -48%
Defence 0.99 -1%

Liberia

Attack 0.99 -1%
Defence 1.07 +7%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Rwanda vs Liberia: result vs prediction

Rwanda 3 – 1 Liberia

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Group Stage - 1 fixtures

Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

Before and after this match

Rwanda vs Liberia markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Rwanda 45.1% 2.22 -30.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 73.6% 1.36 — —
Both teams to score No 65.5% 1.53 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 74.5% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 78.3% 1.28 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Rwanda45.1%
Draw29.4%
Liberia25.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.526.4%
Under 2.573.6%
Both teams to scoreYes34.5%
No65.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)74.5%
12 (either side)70.6%
X2 (draw or away)54.9%
Handicap -1Rwanda win6.5%
Push (exactly one goal)15.2%
Loss78.3%
Correct score (top 3)0-018.1%
0-117.0%
1-114.0%

Rwanda vs Liberia stats

Rwanda and Liberia recent form

newest first
Rwanda LLWLDL
Liberia DWDLWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Rwanda vs Liberia head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Rwanda vs Liberia odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 52.7%, draw 27.6%, away 19.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.74 3.34 4.89
Bet365 1.67 3.30 5.00
BetVictor 1.70 3.25 5.00
Betano 1.75 3.40 4.65
Betfair 1.85 3.00 4.20
Marathonbet 1.72 3.34 4.90
Pinnacle 1.75 3.56 4.41
SBO 1.63 3.04 4.43
William Hill 1.73 3.25 4.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.73 ▼ -0.18
X 3.30 ▲ +0.20
2 4.65 ▲ +0.85

5 snapshots recorded, from .