Morocco
vs
Gabon
2 – 0 Full time
| 36′ | Noussair Mazraoui | ||
| 41′ | Anthony Oyono | ||
| 62′ | Yassir ZabiriSoufiane Rahimi | ||
| 62′ | Gessime YassineIlias Akhomach Chakkour | ||
| 64′ | Ayyoub Bouaddi | ||
| 68′ | André PokoHenrick Do Marcolino | ||
| 72′ | Jonathan Do Marcolino | ||
| 76′ | Azzedine OunahiBilal El Khannouss | ||
| 76′ | Abde EzzalzouliAbdellah Ouazane | ||
| 79′ | Jonathan Do MarcolinoAlex Moucketou-Moussounda | ||
| 79′ | Shavy BabickaAndré-Jordy Ella | ||
| 84′ | Noussair MazraouiAnass Salah-Eddine | ||
| 84′ | Soufiane Rahimi |
Match stats
| 17 | Shots | 11 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 63 | Possession % | 37 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 19 |
| 0 | Offsides | 4 |
| 5 | Saves | 1 |
| 610 | Accurate passes | 255 |
Morocco vs Gabon overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Morocco vs Gabon
| Probability | Morocco | Draw | Gabon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60.9% | 22.0% | 17.1% |
| Market | 81.9% | 12.7% | 5.4% |
| Final | 76.6% | 15.0% | 8.4% |
| Edge | -21.0% | +9.3% | +11.7% |
Why Morocco
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.27 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Morocco and Gabon expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.22
Morocco and Gabon attack and defence ratings
Morocco
Gabon
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Morocco vs Gabon: result vs prediction
Morocco 2 – 0 Gabon
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Group Stage - 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Morocco vs Gabon markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Morocco | 76.6% | 1.30 | -21.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.3% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.9% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.6% | 1.09 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Morocco win | 43.9% | 2.28 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Morocco | 76.6% |
| Draw | 15.0% | |
| Gabon | 8.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.9% |
| No | 41.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 85.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 23.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Morocco win | 43.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.2% | |
| Loss | 33.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 9.2% |
Morocco vs Gabon stats
Morocco vs Gabon head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-15 | Gabon | Morocco | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification | 1-5 |
| 2024-09-06 | Morocco | Gabon | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification | 4-1 |
| 2022-01-18 | Gabon | Morocco | Africa Cup of Nations | 2-2 |
| 2019-10-15 | Morocco | Gabon | Friendlies | 2-3 |
| 2017-10-07 | Morocco | Gabon | World Cup - Qualification Africa | 3-0 |
| 2016-10-08 | Gabon | Morocco | World Cup - Qualification Africa | 0-0 |
| 2016-01-16 | Gabon | Morocco | African Nations Championship | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Morocco vs Gabon odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 81.3%, draw 13.2%, away 5.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.11 | 7.60 | 19.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.14 | 7.50 | 17.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.12 | 7.00 | 17.00 |
| Betano | 1.17 | 7.30 | 18.00 |
| Betfair | 1.18 | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.11 | 7.60 | 18.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.13 | 6.50 | 15.15 |
| SBO | 1.14 | 5.42 | 10.12 |
| William Hill | 1.15 | 6.00 | 17.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .